MRK Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MRK Report KEYTRUDA Global Sales IN-LINE pred ~$8.45B vs. cons $8.370B MEDIUM
MRK Report Total Revenue (Sales) IN-LINE pred ~$16.45B vs. cons $16.317B MEDIUM
MRK Report WINREVAIR Sales BEAT pred ~$590M vs. cons $571M MEDIUM
MRK Guide FY 2026 Revenue (FY 2026) LOWER guide ~$66.6B midpoint vs. cons $66.867B MEDIUM
MRK Guide FY 2026 Non-GAAP EPS ex-Terns (FY 2026) BETTER guide ~$5.10-$5.22 vs. cons UNVERIFIED LOW
MRK Guide KEYTRUDA qualitative trajectory (forward) UNCHANGED reaffirm growth, QLEX ramp, no new competitive threat flagged MEDIUM
MRK Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% MEDIUM
MRK Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FADE) FADE — sell-side models implicit H2 cut from FY guide below consensus; Terns EPS noise extends selling pressure MEDIUM