| MSI |
Report |
Non-GAAP EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.92 vs. cons $3.86 |
HIGH |
| MSI |
Report |
Revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$3.01B vs. cons $2.98B |
MEDIUM |
| MSI |
Report |
Products & SI (P&SI) non-GAAP operating margin |
MISS |
pred ~24.8% vs. cons ~25.7% |
MEDIUM |
| MSI |
Guide |
FY26 Non-GAAP EPS (raise) |
BETTER |
guide ~$17.05 midpoint vs. cons $16.98 (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| MSI |
Guide |
FY26 Revenue (raise) |
BETTER |
guide ~$12.85B vs. cons $12.82B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| MSI |
Guide |
FY26 operating margin expansion (reaffirm) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+100 bps vs. cons ~+90 bps (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| MSI |
Guide |
Q3 Non-GAAP EPS guide |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~$4.02 vs. cons $4.08 (Q3-26) |
LOW |
| MSI |
Guide |
FY26 operating cash flow |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$3.0B vs. cons $3.0B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| MSI |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MSI |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.0% (FADE) |
MSI rallied ~+10% in the two weeks into the print (from ~$404 on 7/22 to ~$443 on 8/4), setting a high bar. The Q1 template — a beat-and-raise still sold off ~11% on the memory/tariff margin and FCF overhang — is the base case: headline EPS/revenue beat and another FX/Silvus-led top-line raise, but soft P&SI margin and muted FCF reignite the peak-margin debate. Out-period math is unfavorable: the FY raise is largely FX + Silvus rather than core margin, so estimate revisions on EPS/FCF stay flat-to-down even after the beat, giving little fuel for follow-through. Expect an initial negative reaction that continues to bleed as sell-side trims margin assumptions and the pre-print run-up unwinds; STABILIZE only if P&SI margin holds sequentially and management sounds confident on memory-cost price offsets. |
LOW |