NI Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NI Report Q2 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EPS MISS pred ~$0.14 vs. cons $0.15 MEDIUM
NI Report Q2 2026 Operating Revenue BEAT pred ~$1.38B vs. cons $1.33B LOW
NI Report 1H2026 Cumulative Consolidated Adjusted EPS (pace check vs. FY guide) IN-LINE pred ~$1.20 vs. cons $1.21 MEDIUM
NI Guide FY2026 Consolidated Adjusted EPS Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$2.02-$2.07 (midpoint $2.045) vs. cons $2.05 (FY2026) HIGH
NI Guide 2026-2033 Consolidated Adjusted EPS CAGR UNCHANGED guide ~9%-10% vs. cons 9%-10% (2026-2033 CAGR, raised last quarter) HIGH
NI Guide GenCo-specific EPS accretion target by 2030 UNCHANGED guide ~$0.25-$0.35 vs. prior guide $0.25-$0.35 (cumulative by 2030) MEDIUM
NI Guide FFO-to-Debt ratio target UNCHANGED guide ~14%-16% vs. cons/prior 14%-16% (2026 target) HIGH
NI Guide Consolidated 5-yr Capital Plan (2026-2030, incl. GenCo/data center) UNCHANGED guide ~$28.0B vs. prior $28.0B (2026-2030 capex plan, incl. ~$7B data center) MEDIUM
NI Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.3% LOW
NI Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (STABILIZE) Consensus EPS ($0.15) already reflects deep analyst cuts (KeyCorp to $0.14, negative Earnings ESP), so a modest miss is largely pre-digested; the shortfall looks driven by financing costs/GenCo development timing rather than a fundamental problem, and FY26 guidance ($2.02-2.07) plus the 9-10% long-term CAGR are expected to be reaffirmed. That should let analysts true-up 2H26 quarterly phasing (out-period math) without cutting full-year numbers, capping further downside revisions; absent a new negative regulatory or GenCo data point (e.g., PA rate-case friction), the stock should stabilize near its day-1 level rather than see sustained follow-through selling or a sharp reversal/fade. LOW