NiSource Inc. (NI) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup is modestly constructive — consensus has drifted lower since Q1 (2Q26 EPS consensus now ~$0.16 vs. ~$0.24 at last earnings), creating a low bar that NI should clear, but the real swing factor is any update on the GenCo pipeline and IURC regulatory approvals, not the headline EPS print itself.

Heading into Q2 2026 earnings, NiSource faces a meaningfully reduced consensus bar: the Street's 2Q26 adjusted operating EPS estimate has fallen from ~$0.24 at the time of the Q1 print to ~$0.16 currently, a decline driven partly by seasonal patterns (Q2 is structurally the weakest quarter for a gas-heavy utility) and partly by estimate drift following the Q1 beat. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02–$2.07 on the Q1 call and raised the long-term CAGR to 9–10% through 2033, leaving the tone confident and the bar achievable. Estimate revisions have tracked guidance directionally, though the sharp Q2 consensus step-down relative to the Q1 actual ($1.06) reflects normal seasonality rather than a deteriorating outlook. The stock has underperformed XLU since the May 6 earnings date (NI ~−6% vs. XLU ~−3%), suggesting the market is in 'show-me' mode on GenCo execution rather than pricing in upside. The single biggest wildcard is whether NiSource can confirm IURC approval of the original Amazon contract (expected in June per Q1 commentary) and provide an update on the 90–120 day expedited review timeline for the Alphabet and expanded Amazon agreements — any slippage here would be the key negative surprise, while confirmation of on-track approvals and any incremental pipeline announcement would be the positive catalyst.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a low bar heading into Q2 — the 2Q26 adjusted operating EPS estimate of ~$0.16 is well below the $0.22 reported in 2Q25, reflecting seasonal weakness and estimate drift. The bigger swing factor is revenue and O&M trajectory, which together signal whether the base business is tracking to the full-year guide.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (2Q 2026)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Adj. Operating EPS and Total Revenue actuals from VA; 2Q26 consensus as of August 4, 2026. FY 2026 guidance reaffirmed on Q1 2026 earnings call (May 6, 2026). O&M flat commitment per management guidance on Q1 2026 call.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History: Adjusted Operating EPS (Last 8 Quarters)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. NI has beaten adjusted operating EPS consensus in 6 of the last 7 reported quarters, with the sole miss in 3Q 2025 a narrow −2.6% shortfall. The consistent beat pattern — particularly the large 3Q 2024 beat (+19.8%) and 1Q 2025 beat (+7.6%) — suggests management tends to guide conservatively. The low 2Q 2026 consensus bar of $0.162 reinforces the likelihood of another beat.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance is unchanged since the Q1 2026 call — FY 2026 EPS reaffirmed at $2.02–$2.07 — but tone has shifted meaningfully more confident on the GenCo platform, with raised long-term CAGR and GenCo EPS targets. The only new cautionary note is Pennsylvania regulatory risk following Governor Shapiro’s letter.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates for 2Q 2026 have fallen sharply since the Q1 print (from $0.237 to $0.162, −32%), reflecting seasonal normalization and estimate drift, not a deteriorating fundamental outlook. Full-year 2026 consensus of $2.05 sits essentially at the guidance midpoint ($2.045), suggesting the Street is tracking management’s guide with minimal divergence. The gap between the Q2 step-down and the FY stability is the key dynamic to watch.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Estimate at +5 days post-Q1 earnings uses May 13, 2026 as-of date. The sharp 2Q26 EPS estimate decline (−31.6%) is consistent with seasonal patterns for a gas-heavy utility (Q2 is the trough quarter) and does not signal a fundamental deterioration. FY 2026 consensus stability (+0.2%) confirms the Street is tracking management’s guide. The FY revenue consensus upgrade (+8.6%) reflects incorporation of GenCo-related revenue ramp expectations.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: NI has underperformed both XLU and the S&P 500 since the May 6 earnings date, declining ~6.3% vs. XLU −3.5% and SPY +5.1%, driven primarily by multiple compression rather than estimate cuts — the market is discounting GenCo execution risk rather than the base business.

Since the Q1 2026 earnings date (May 6, 2026), NI has declined from $47.51 to $44.53 (−6.3%), underperforming the utilities sector ETF (XLU: $45.71 → $44.11, −3.5%) and significantly lagging the S&P 500 (SPY: $733.83 → $771.33, +5.1%). The stock briefly rallied to $49.08 on June 26 (a peak of +3.3% vs. the earnings date) before reversing. The NTM P/E has compressed from ~22.4x to ~20.7x over the past month, consistent with the stock’s underperformance being multiple-driven rather than estimate-driven. The 1-month stock decline of −5.3% compares to NTM EV/EBITDA compression of −2.6%, suggesting sentiment and risk premium are the primary headwinds. The sector ETF XLU is the appropriate benchmark for NI’s regulated gas and electric utility operations.

Indexed Performance (Base = 100 at May 6, 2026 close):

Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance). NI peaked on June 26, 2026 (+3.3% vs. earnings date), coinciding with broader utility sector strength and no company-specific catalyst. The subsequent reversal to −6.3% by August 4 reflects sector rotation back into risk assets (SPY +5.1%) and NI-specific multiple compression as investors await GenCo execution confirmation. Key event: NI completed a $1.25B senior notes offering on May 18, 2026 (4.750% due 2031 and 5.300% due 2036), which had no material stock impact.

6. Peer Commentary & Current-Quarter Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: Peer Q2 2026 earnings calls (July 28–August 4) are broadly constructive for NI: data center demand is accelerating across the Midwest utility landscape, large-load cost allocation frameworks are proving regulatory durable, and mild weather headwinds are manageable. The most important read-through is CMS Energy’s data center tariff progress and Ameren’s ESA execution — both validate NI’s GenCo thesis. Pennsylvania regulatory risk remains the key idiosyncratic watch item.

Note: All commentary below is sourced exclusively from Q2 2026 earnings calls and in-quarter disclosures (June 5 – August 4, 2026). Prior-quarter results commentary has been excluded.

CMS Energy (CMS) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call, July 28, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: HIGH — Closest structural peer (Midwest gas+electric combo); data center tariff progress is a direct GenCo analog.

• Data Center Tariff Progress: CMS reached an agreement under its large load tariff, including both an Extraordinary Facilities Agreement and a rate agreement. Management stated: “We have one of the most constructive frameworks in the country for data center growth.” The next step is local zoning approval, with load growth to be incorporated into the September IRP filing.
• Read-through for NI: Validates that Midwest utility regulators are approving large-load tariff structures. NI’s IURC approval of the Amazon contract (expected June per Q1 commentary) and the 90–120 day expedited review for Alphabet/Amazon expansions are the direct analog. CMS’s zoning step is the gating item — NI investors should watch for similar milestones.
• Customer Affordability Model: CMS confirmed its large load tariff ensures new customers “bear all costs to serve them” and that “our average residential electric customer could see approximately $7.50 per month of bill benefit with every gigawatt of new large load.”
• Read-through for NI: Directly validates NI’s GenCo customer savings model (~$124/year per residential customer). Regulatory precedent for cost-allocation frameworks protecting existing customers is building across the Midwest.
• Weather & O&M: CMS reported “unfavorable weather comp from last year, and slightly lower cooling and heating degree days in Q2 versus normal resulted in unfavorable variance of $0.08 for year-to-date results.” Storm costs were the primary headwind, with a pending storm deferral filed with the commission.
• Read-through for NI: Mild Q2 weather is a sector-wide headwind. NI’s gas distribution segment will face similar cooling degree day pressure, though weather normalization mechanisms partially mitigate this. Storm cost deferrals are a standard recovery tool.
• Capital Plan Upside: CMS noted its current capital plan “doesn’t reflect that load growth” from the new data center agreement, signaling potential upside to capex and rate base. CMS exited non-utility renewables, reallocating ~$1.7B of capital to the regulated utility.
• Read-through for NI: Confirms that data center load growth creates incremental capex upside beyond current plans — consistent with NI’s $7.6B GenCo capex overlay on top of its $21B base plan.

Ameren (AEE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call, July 31, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: HIGH — Most advanced data center ESA pipeline; Missouri PSC large-load tariff approval is a regulatory precedent for NI’s Indiana GenCo structure.

• ESA Execution & Load Ramp: AEE has 2.8GW of ESAs signed (Google + Amazon in Missouri), with sales expected to begin materializing in H2 2027, driving a projected 60% increase in annual electricity sales from 2025 levels by end of 2029. Google and Amazon announced projects in Q2 with a combined planned investment of $25 billion.
• Read-through for NI: AEE’s H2 2027 load ramp timeline is consistent with NI’s Amazon load energization beginning in 2027 (per Q1 commentary). The $25B combined investment scale validates hyperscaler commitment to Midwest utility territories.
• Cost Allocation Framework: Consistent with Missouri Senate Bill 4, large customers pay 100% of power and infrastructure costs, with rates higher than standard industrial rates. AEE estimates Missouri customers will realize ~$21M in projected base rate savings over two years following the rate review from new large-load revenues.
• Read-through for NI: Directly validates NI’s GenCo regulatory model. Missouri PSC approval of this cost-allocation structure is a positive precedent for NI’s IURC proceedings in Indiana.
• Missouri Electric Rate Review: AEE filed a $343M revenue increase request with the Missouri PSC in late June 2026, requesting 10.6% rate base CAGR recovery. An order is expected by May 2027.
• Read-through for NI: Demonstrates active regulatory engagement to recover capital investments. NI’s own rate case strategy in Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will be a key Q2 call topic.
• Financing: AEE sold ~$1.2B of common stock forward under its ATM program year-to-date in 2026 for prospective equity needs, with S&P and Moody’s reaffirming stable outlooks (BBB+/Baa1). AEE boosted its equity distribution program by $2B (8-K, August 4, 2026).
• Read-through for NI: Confirms ATM equity programs are functioning well for Midwest utilities at scale. NI’s $400M–$600M annual ATM target is well within market capacity.

Alliant Energy (LNT) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call, July 31, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: HIGH — Closest operational analog to NI’s GenCo platform; data center ESA ramp and Wisconsin regulatory dynamics are direct read-throughs.

• Data Center Load Ramp: LNT has five executed ESAs driving a projected 60% demand increase by 2031. Google has energized transmission service and is ramping per contracted schedule. Meta has entered vertical construction phase in Beaver Dam, Wisconsin. A new 370MW Iowa data center agreement was signed in Q1. Management noted load growth is “a little bit faster than we expected originally.”
• Read-through for NI: Faster-than-expected load ramp at LNT is a positive signal for NI’s Amazon load energization timeline (beginning 2027). Hyperscaler construction activity is accelerating across the Midwest.
• Weather Headwind: Milder than normal temperatures reduced Q2 electric and gas margins by approximately $0.03 per share. Despite this, LNT reaffirmed guidance and is trending in the upper half of its range.
• Read-through for NI: Mild Q2 weather is a sector-wide headwind. NI’s gas distribution segment will face similar pressure, but the ability to reaffirm guidance despite weather headwinds (as LNT did) is the key signal to watch.
• Wisconsin Regulatory Dynamics: LNT received approval of an individual customer rate agreement for Meta’s Beaver Dam data center and expects to file a “broader large load tariff later this quarter.” Management confirmed that community ordinances and moratoriums “are not impacting our projects nor our pipeline.”
• Read-through for NI: Wisconsin large-load tariff filing (modeled on Xcel Energy’s approach) is a template for how Midwest regulators are structuring large-load cost allocation. NI’s Indiana IURC proceedings are the direct analog.
• Financing: LNT has raised ~$1.8B through forward equity agreements out of ~$2.4B of announced equity needs through 2029, effectively addressing equity needs through 2028. Capital plan update expected on Q3 call.
• Read-through for NI: Proactive equity pre-funding is a best practice NI is also executing via its ATM program. LNT’s Q3 capital plan update (expected to expand) could signal further upside to NI’s own capex trajectory.

PSEG (PEG) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call, August 4, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: MODERATE — Gas modernization program and regulatory modernization framework are direct analogs to NI’s Columbia Gas operations and PA regulatory strategy.

• Gas System Modernization (GSM P3): PSEG is executing its $1.4B, 3-year GSM P3 program with ~$1B receiving accelerated recovery. Management confirmed: “our gas distribution business is focused, as it always has been, on replacement of cast iron. That’s still something that I don’t see changing.”
• Read-through for NI: Cast iron pipe replacement is a core, ongoing capital program for NI’s Columbia Gas operations. PSEG’s accelerated recovery mechanism is a model for NI’s tracker/rider strategy in PA and OH.
• Regulatory Modernization (NJ BPU Phase 2): The NJ BPU released a consultant report concluding Phase 1 of Governor’s Executive Order One, highlighting multi-year rate plans, performance-based rates, decoupling, and shared savings mechanisms as promising frameworks. Phase 2 will focus on cost discipline and performance-based ratemaking. PSEG will file comments by September 18.
• Read-through for NI: Regulatory modernization exploring multi-year rate plans and decoupling is a leading indicator of where Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regulators may head — directly relevant to NI’s PA and OH regulatory strategy and its response to Governor Shapiro’s letter.
• Rate Case Filing: PSEG anticipates filing a base rate case by year-end 2026 (earlier than the 2029 requirement) due to “significant amount of distribution rate base at a time when there have been fewer infrastructure investment programs.”
• Read-through for NI: Proactive rate case filing to recover capital investments is a strategy NI may need to employ in PA given the governor’s letter. The rationale (large rate base additions requiring timely recovery) is directly applicable.
• Weather: Q2 2026 weather was 29% warmer than normal and 9% warmer than Q2 2025. PSEG’s Conservation Incentive Program (CIP) decoupling mechanism mitigated weather-related revenue volatility.
• Read-through for NI: Confirms sector-wide warm Q2 weather. NI’s weather normalization mechanisms in its gas distribution segment provide similar protection, but the magnitude of the weather headwind is a watch item for Q2 results.

Dominion Energy (D) — Q2 2026 Results, July 31, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: MODERATE — Largest data center utility in the U.S.; Virginia segment results validate hyperscaler demand trajectory.

• Data Center Demand Acceleration: Dominion’s Virginia segment contracted nearly 53.8GW of data center capacity as of July, up 5.3GW from December. Adjusted operating earnings from the Virginia segment rose 22% to $670M in Q2. Dominion posted adjusted EPS of $0.79 vs. consensus of $0.68, a significant beat driven by data center load.
• Read-through for NI: Dominion’s 22% Virginia segment earnings growth and 5.3GW of incremental contracted capacity in 6 months confirms that hyperscaler demand is not slowing. This is the strongest positive read-through for NI’s GenCo pipeline — the 3GW in strategic negotiations and 2GW of developing opportunities are credible given the demand backdrop.
• Revenue Beat: Quarterly revenue rose to $4.48B from $3.81B a year ago, beating consensus of $4.04B. Overall operating expenses surged to $4.15B from $2.71B, reflecting the scale of infrastructure investment.
• Read-through for NI: Revenue upside from data center load is real and material. NI’s revenue consensus of $1.354B for Q2 may prove conservative if GenCo-related revenues begin to flow through earlier than expected.

American Electric Power (AEP) — Q2 2026 Results, July 30, 2026

Read-Through Relevance: MODERATE — Large-load take-or-pay agreements and guidance raise are positive signals for the sector.

• Guidance Raise & Large Load: AEP raised its FY 2026 operating EPS guidance to $6.25–$6.55 (from $6.15–$6.45), supported by robust data center demand. AEP noted new large-load customers could help offset up to $16B of costs for residential customers through fully executed take-or-pay agreements. AEP secured 3 additional GW of gas-fired turbine capacity in Q2, bringing total secured capacity to ~13GW through 2031.
• Read-through for NI: AEP’s guidance raise driven by data center demand is a positive sector read-through. The take-or-pay agreement structure protecting existing customers is directly analogous to NI’s GenCo bilateral contract model. Turbine procurement at scale confirms supply chain is accessible for Midwest utilities.

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q1 development is the $1.25B senior notes offering (May 18), which funds the GenCo capex ramp and signals balance sheet confidence. The broader sector backdrop — hyperscaler demand acceleration, Trump administration data center pledge, and Midwest utility regulatory constructiveness — is incrementally positive for NI’s GenCo thesis.

• May 18, 2026 — NI Completes $1.25B Senior Notes Offering (8-K): NiSource priced $500M of 4.750% Notes due 2031 and $750M of 5.300% Notes due 2036. Proceeds designated for general corporate purposes including capital expenditures and debt repayment. Implication: Confirms access to investment-grade debt markets at reasonable rates; supports the $7.6B GenCo capex overlay without equity dilution pressure beyond the $400M–$600M ATM target.
• May 6, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings: GenCo Expansion & Guidance Raise: NI announced a new Alphabet agreement (340MW pooled resources, service beginning summer 2026), an incremental 400MW Amazon expansion, introduction of the pooled generation strategy (~800MW initial pool), raised long-term EPS CAGR to 9–10%, and raised GenCo EPS guidance (2030: $0.25–$0.35; 2033: $0.40–$0.60). Total signed capacity now ~4GW. Implication: The Alphabet and Amazon expansions were pre-released April 16, so the stock reaction was muted. The raised guidance and pooled generation strategy are the key structural positives heading into Q2.
• April 16, 2026 — NI Pre-Announces Alphabet & Amazon Agreements (Press Release): NiSource announced strategic energy infrastructure agreements with Alphabet and expanded Amazon collaboration, expected to deliver ~$1.4B in customer savings. Implication: Pre-release of the GenCo news ahead of Q1 earnings muted the stock reaction on May 6. The market had already partially priced in the announcements.
• July 31, 2026 — Dominion Q2 Beat: Virginia Data Center Capacity +5.3GW in 6 Months: Dominion reported adjusted EPS of $0.79 vs. $0.68 consensus, with Virginia segment contracted data center capacity reaching 53.8GW. Implication: Strongest sector read-through for NI’s GenCo pipeline — hyperscaler demand is accelerating, not decelerating, validating NI’s 3GW strategic negotiation pipeline.
• July 30, 2026 — AEP Raises FY 2026 Guidance; Secures 3GW Additional Turbine Capacity: AEP raised FY 2026 EPS guidance and secured 3 additional GW of gas-fired turbine capacity, bringing total to ~13GW through 2031. Implication: Turbine supply chain is accessible at scale for Midwest utilities; positive for NI’s GenCo generation procurement strategy.
• July 28, 2026 — CMS Energy Q2 Results: Data Center Tariff Agreement Reached: CMS reached an agreement under its large load tariff (Extraordinary Facilities Agreement + rate agreement) and announced exit from non-utility renewables, reallocating ~$1.7B to regulated utility. Implication: Michigan PSC approval of large-load tariff structure is a positive regulatory precedent for NI’s Indiana IURC proceedings.
• July 23, 2026 — Trump Administration Expands Data Center Pledge: President Trump expanded a voluntary pledge with governors and electricity companies to shield consumers from higher utility bills from data center buildouts. NEE, Duke, Equinix, and Digital Realty among ~200 signatories. Implication: Federal political support for data center growth while protecting consumers is aligned with NI’s GenCo model, which explicitly flows savings back to existing customers.
• July 29, 2026 — NextEra/Brookfield Announce $100B Data Center Campus in Kentucky: NEE and Brookfield plan a $100B data center campus at a former uranium enrichment site in Paducah, KY, with 1.2GW of compute capacity and up to 1.8GW of electricity supply. Implication: Confirms hyperscaler demand for Midwest/Mid-South utility territories is massive and growing. Positive backdrop for NI’s Indiana GenCo pipeline.
• July 28, 2026 — Ohio Rate Freeze Legislation Proposed: Ohio state Rep. Desiree Tims introduced a bill to freeze utility rate increases in Ohio for one year, citing 29% residential electricity price growth from 2019–2024. Implication: Regulatory risk for NI’s Columbia Gas of Ohio operations. A rate freeze would impair cost recovery and could delay infrastructure investment. Watch for management commentary on Ohio regulatory posture.
• July 30, 2026 — AES Indiana Rate Hike Fight: IURC Leadership Shakeup: Indiana IURC approved a $71M rate hike for AES Indiana (vs. $193M requested), with the IURC chairman demoted and new commissioners installed following Governor Braun’s displeasure. Petitions for rehearing filed July 7. Implication: Indiana regulatory environment is in flux. The IURC leadership change and the AES rate case outcome (ROE of 9.5%, lowest for an Indiana electric utility) are cautionary signals for NI’s NIPSCO electric rate proceedings and GenCo IURC approval timeline.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Three open-market sales by senior executives in mid-to-late May 2026 (CEO, EVP Administration & CHRO, EVP & Group President Utilities) are notable in size but appear to be discretionary rather than 10b5-1 plan-driven. The cluster of sales shortly after Q1 earnings is worth flagging, though the CEO retains a large position (~520K shares post-sale).

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings. All three transactions are open-market sales (transaction code S, disposition type D) with no 10b5-1 plan indicated. The cluster of three executive sales within a 9-day window (May 14–22) shortly after Q1 earnings is worth monitoring, though the CEO’s retention of ~520K shares and the absence of any buy-side activity from the period are the key contextual factors. Berman’s sale of ~29% of her holdings is the most notable in relative terms. No insider purchases were recorded in the period since last earnings.

9. Risks & Questions for the Call

Key Risks Heading Into the Print

• IURC Approval Slippage (HIGH): The original Amazon contract was expected to receive IURC approval in June 2026 per Q1 commentary. Any delay or adverse outcome would push back the 90–120 day expedited review for Alphabet and the expanded Amazon agreements, deferring GenCo EPS accretion and potentially triggering estimate cuts.
• Indiana Regulatory Environment Deterioration (HIGH): The IURC leadership shakeup following the AES Indiana rate case (ROE of 9.5%, lowest in Indiana) and Governor Braun’s displeasure signals a more contentious regulatory environment. NI’s NIPSCO electric rate proceedings and GenCo tariff approvals are at risk if the new IURC composition is less constructive.
• Pennsylvania Regulatory Risk (MEDIUM-HIGH): Governor Shapiro’s letter to utilities regarding tracker mechanisms remains an active risk. NI acknowledged on the Q1 call that it is “actively engaged in Pennsylvania with all the stakeholders.” Any adverse development on PA tracker mechanisms would impair Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania’s capital recovery and could reduce the PA capex plan.
• Ohio Rate Freeze Legislation (MEDIUM): The proposed Ohio utility rate freeze bill, if enacted, would impair NI’s Columbia Gas of Ohio cost recovery and could delay infrastructure investment. Watch for management commentary on the legislative status.
• Weather & O&M Headwinds (MEDIUM): Sector-wide mild Q2 weather (CMS: −0.08/share YTD; LNT: −0.03/share in Q2; PSEG: 29% warmer than normal) will pressure NI’s gas distribution margins. Storm costs are an additional O&M wildcard. NI’s weather normalization mechanisms partially mitigate this, but the magnitude matters for the Q2 print.
• Schahfer Coal Plant Federal Directive (MEDIUM): NIPSCO received a second federal order in March 2026 requiring continued operation of the Schahfer coal plant. Management confirmed the plan incorporates flexibility, but any escalation of federal directives could increase operating costs and complicate the resource plan.
• Equity Dilution Pace (LOW-MEDIUM): NI targets $400M–$600M of annual ATM equity issuance. Any acceleration beyond this range to fund GenCo capex would be dilutive to near-term EPS and could pressure the stock.

Key Questions for the Q2 2026 Earnings Call

1. IURC Approval Status: Has the IURC issued its order on the original Amazon contract settlement? If so, what is the timeline for the 90–120 day expedited review of the Alphabet and expanded Amazon agreements? Are you still expecting orders ‘later this year’ as guided on the Q1 call?
2. Indiana Regulatory Environment: How do you view the IURC leadership changes following the AES Indiana rate case? Does the new commission composition change your confidence in the GenCo tariff approval timeline or the NIPSCO electric rate case outcome?
3. Pennsylvania Update: What is the current status of your engagement with Governor Shapiro’s office? Have you made any decisions about adjusting the pace or method of Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania’s capital investment program in response to the governor’s letter?
4. GenCo Pipeline: Can you provide an update on the 3GW in strategic negotiations and 2GW of developing opportunities? Has any of the pipeline progressed to signed contracts since the Q1 call? Is Microsoft in La Porte County still a developing opportunity?
5. Alphabet Service Commencement: You guided that Alphabet service would begin ‘this summer’ using 340MW of pooled resources. Has service commenced? What is the current status of the pooled generation asset build-out?
6. Weather & O&M: How did Q2 weather compare to normal, and what was the net impact on earnings after weather normalization mechanisms? Are you still tracking to flat O&M for the full year?
7. Ohio Rate Freeze: What is your assessment of the proposed Ohio utility rate freeze legislation? What is the potential earnings impact if enacted, and what is your regulatory strategy in response?
8. Financing & Credit: How much ATM equity have you issued year-to-date? Are you tracking within the $400M–$600M annual target? Any update on FFO/debt trajectory and credit agency engagement?

Appendix: Data Sources & Citations

• Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — All KPI actuals and consensus estimates (Adj. Operating EPS, Total Revenue, Capital Expenditures, Operation & Maintenance). Source: Visible Alpha (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/NI_US/NMV/IS and /CF).
• Stock Price Data — NI, XLU, and SPY daily closing prices May 6 – August 5, 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.
• Insider Transaction Data — Form 4 filings for NI insiders. Sources: SEC EDGAR (Yates: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111711/000111171126000073/; Berman: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111711/000111171126000074/; Birmingham: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111711/000111171126000071/).
• NI Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Earnings Release (May 6, 2026) — Guidance, GenCo commentary, regulatory updates. Source: NiSource SEC filings and earnings transcript.
• NI 8-K — Senior Notes Offering (May 18, 2026) — $1.25B debt offering details. Source: SEC EDGAR.
• Peer Earnings Calls & Releases (Q2 2026) — CMS Energy (July 28), Ameren (July 30–31), Alliant Energy (July 30–31), PSEG (August 4), Dominion Energy (July 31), AEP (July 30). Sources: SEC EDGAR 8-K filings and earnings call transcripts.
• News Sources — Reuters, Axios, Washington Post, WSJ, CNBC. Dates as cited in Material News section.