| NRG |
Report |
Q2'26 Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$1,425M vs. cons ~$1,350M |
MEDIUM |
| NRG |
Report |
Q2'26 Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.00 vs. cons ~$1.85 |
LOW |
| NRG |
Report |
Texas segment Adjusted EBITDA (Q2'26, ERCOT summer proxy) |
BEAT |
pred ~$610M vs. cons ~$560M |
LOW |
| NRG |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide (reaffirm vs raise) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$5,575M mid (range $5,325-5,825M) vs. cons ~$5,600M (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| NRG |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$8.90 mid (range $7.90-9.90) vs. cons ~$8.90 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| NRG |
Guide |
First signed large-load/data-center generation deal (the catalyst) |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~0 GW signed (progress-only) vs. cons hope ~1 GW first deal (2026) |
LOW |
| NRG |
Guide |
PJM 2028/29 capacity contribution (already disclosed 7/14) |
BETTER |
guide ~6,839 MW @ $325/MW-day (~$800M annualized gross) vs. cons ~$0 prior baked-in (2028/29) |
MEDIUM |
| NRG |
Guide |
2026 buyback pace |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.0B+ ($817M done thru 4/30) vs. cons ~$1.0B plan (FY2026) |
LOW |
| NRG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
LOW |
| NRG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.0% (FADE) |
A Q2 beat with only a reaffirmed (not raised) FY2026 guide mechanically marks down the implied H2 (Q3+Q4) run-rate — the classic implicit cut that pulls out-period estimates lower even after a headline beat. Layer on soft ERCOT forward curves and, in the base case, no signed large-load/data-center deal (the actual narrative catalyst), and any initial pop in this high-beta, de-rated AI-power name fades as the real summer/Q3 test and deal proof are still ahead. |
LOW |