{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2'26 Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1,425M vs. cons ~$1,350M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2'26 Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.00 vs. cons ~$1.85",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Texas segment Adjusted EBITDA (Q2'26, ERCOT summer proxy)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$610M vs. cons ~$560M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide (reaffirm vs raise)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$5,575M mid (range $5,325-5,825M) vs. cons ~$5,600M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.90 mid (range $7.90-9.90) vs. cons ~$8.90 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "First signed large-load/data-center generation deal (the catalyst)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~0 GW signed (progress-only) vs. cons hope ~1 GW first deal (2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "PJM 2028/29 capacity contribution (already disclosed 7/14)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~6,839 MW @ $325/MW-day (~$800M annualized gross) vs. cons ~$0 prior baked-in (2028/29)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2026 buyback pace",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.0B+ ($817M done thru 4/30) vs. cons ~$1.0B plan (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A Q2 beat with only a reaffirmed (not raised) FY2026 guide mechanically marks down the implied H2 (Q3+Q4) run-rate \u2014 the classic implicit cut that pulls out-period estimates lower even after a headline beat. Layer on soft ERCOT forward curves and, in the base case, no signed large-load/data-center deal (the actual narrative catalyst), and any initial pop in this high-beta, de-rated AI-power name fades as the real summer/Q3 test and deal proof are still ahead.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}