| NRG |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (2Q26) |
MISS |
pred ~$1.72 vs. cons $1.78 |
LOW |
| NRG |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA (2Q26) |
MISS |
pred ~$1.30B vs. cons $1.35B |
LOW |
| NRG |
Report |
Total Revenue (2Q26) |
MISS |
pred ~$6.40B vs. cons $6.65B |
LOW |
| NRG |
Guide |
FY26 Adjusted EPS guidance range |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$7.90-$9.90 (mid $8.90) vs. cons $8.89 (FY26) |
HIGH |
| NRG |
Guide |
FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$5,325-$5,825M (mid $5,575M) vs. cons $5,575M (FY26) |
HIGH |
| NRG |
Guide |
FY26 FCF before Growth (FCFbG) guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2,800-$3,300M (mid $3,050M) vs. cons $3,000M (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| NRG |
Guide |
Large-load/data-center binding contracts signed |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~0 new binding agreements disclosed vs. cons ~1 anticipated (2026) |
LOW |
| NRG |
Guide |
Shareholder return target (buybacks+dividends) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.4B total (incl. ~$1.0B buyback) vs. cons ~$1.4B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| NRG |
Guide |
PJM 2028-29 BRA incremental EBITDA quantification |
BETTER |
guide ~$300-400M incremental EBITDA vs. cons ~$200M expected (2028-2029 delivery year) |
MEDIUM |
| NRG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| NRG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.5% (FADE) |
A modest headline EPS/EBITDA miss (weak ERCOT summer pricing per ERCOT's own lower forward-price outlook, plus elevated interest expense from the LS Power debt load) triggers an initial sell-the-news drop despite reaffirmed FY26 ranges; because guidance bands are unchanged rather than raised, sell-side models still need to trim in-year run-rate estimates to stay inside the low end of the range, and the stock's recent +11% run into the print (from $124 to $138.50) leaves it vulnerable to profit-taking as analysts push out large-load monetization and shave 2H26 numbers, producing continued drift lower over the week even if PJM auction commentary is incrementally positive for out-years. |
LOW |