{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (2Q26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.72 vs. cons $1.78",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA (2Q26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.30B vs. cons $1.35B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (2Q26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.40B vs. cons $6.65B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adjusted EPS guidance range",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.90-$9.90 (mid $8.90) vs. cons $8.89 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$5,325-$5,825M (mid $5,575M) vs. cons $5,575M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 FCF before Growth (FCFbG) guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2,800-$3,300M (mid $3,050M) vs. cons $3,000M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Large-load/data-center binding contracts signed",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~0 new binding agreements disclosed vs. cons ~1 anticipated (2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Shareholder return target (buybacks+dividends)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.4B total (incl. ~$1.0B buyback) vs. cons ~$1.4B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "PJM 2028-29 BRA incremental EBITDA quantification",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$300-400M incremental EBITDA vs. cons ~$200M expected (2028-2029 delivery year)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest headline EPS/EBITDA miss (weak ERCOT summer pricing per ERCOT's own lower forward-price outlook, plus elevated interest expense from the LS Power debt load) triggers an initial sell-the-news drop despite reaffirmed FY26 ranges; because guidance bands are unchanged rather than raised, sell-side models still need to trim in-year run-rate estimates to stay inside the low end of the range, and the stock's recent +11% run into the print (from $124 to $138.50) leaves it vulnerable to profit-taking as analysts push out large-load monetization and shave 2H26 numbers, producing continued drift lower over the week even if PJM auction commentary is incrementally positive for out-years.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}