NRG Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NRG Report Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$1.43B vs. cons $1.38B MEDIUM
NRG Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$2.42 vs. cons $2.31 MEDIUM
NRG Report FCF before Growth Investments MISS pred ~$810M vs. cons $850M LOW
NRG Guide 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$5.58B vs. cons $5.60B (FY2026) HIGH
NRG Guide 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$8.90 vs. cons $9.00 (FY2026) HIGH
NRG Guide 2026 FCF before Growth Investments guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$3.05B vs. cons $3.05B (FY2026) MEDIUM
NRG Guide Texas Energy Fund / T.H. Wharton operating-status commentary BETTER guide ~415 MW in commercial operation vs. cons 415 MW (2Q26) MEDIUM
NRG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.8% MEDIUM
NRG Return 5-day cumulative residual +5.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A ~$1.43B EBITDA beat versus ~$1.38B consensus, combined with intact ~$5.58B FY2026 EBITDA guidance versus ~$5.60B consensus, should support upward confidence in the post-acquisition run-rate. The softer ~$810M FCFbG result versus ~$850M consensus is likely viewed as working-capital timing rather than an out-period earnings reset, allowing estimate revisions and valuation support to extend beyond day one. MEDIUM