NRG Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NRG Report Adjusted/operating EPS BEAT pred ~$1.70 vs. cons $1.662 MEDIUM
NRG Report EBITDA BEAT pred ~$1.17B vs. cons $1.140B MEDIUM
NRG Report Texas gross profit MISS pred ~$1.01B vs. cons $1.046B MEDIUM
NRG Guide Adjusted EBITDA (FY26) BETTER guide ~$5.575B midpoint vs. cons $5.303B MEDIUM
NRG Guide Adjusted EPS (FY26) LOWER guide ~$8.90 midpoint vs. cons $9.014 MEDIUM
NRG Guide FCF before growth investments (FY26) UNCHANGED guide ~$3.05B midpoint vs. cons UNVERIFIED LOW
NRG Guide Large-load/data-center commentary (FY26) UNCHANGED active process; no incremental signed 1+ GW deal assumed vs. cons UNVERIFIED LOW
NRG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +4.0% LOW
NRG Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.0% (FADE) FADE — lower-quality forward EPS read limits follow-through LOW