I'll research NWS (News Corp) to build a comprehensive earnings preview. Let me start by gathering recent filings, transcripts, and news.The fiscal labeling confirms News Corp's June fiscal year — FY2026 Q4 (quarter/year ended June 2026) reports tomorrow. The latest data available is the Q3 FY2026 call (May 2026). Let me read the most recent transcript/release plus the year-ago Q4 for comparison.I have rich Q3 FY2026 detail. Now let me pull the year-ago Q4 (FY2025) release for the comparison base and check recent stock performance.I now have everything I need. Let me verify a couple of trend figures before writing.# News Corp (NWS / NWSA) — Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview
News Corp heads into its fiscal year-end print with all the momentum in its favor: management has told investors the company is "on track for another record fiscal year of profitability" and pointed to strength "already seen in the fourth quarter." The market seems to agree — NWS shares are up ~16% since early April and closed at $32.74 on Aug 4, near 52-week highs. The debate is less about whether the quarter is good and more about (1) how big the AI-licensing story gets, (2) whether Realtor.com's re-acceleration can continue against a soft housing tape, and (3) how much capital keeps coming back to shareholders.
The March quarter was strong across the board and framed expectations for the Q4 finish:
| Metric (Q3 FY26) | Result | Y/Y |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $2.19B | +9% (+4% adj.) |
| Total Segment EBITDA | $343M | +18% (+13% adj.) |
| EBITDA margin | 15.7% | +130 bps |
| EPS (continuing) / Adj. EPS | $0.16 / $0.21 | vs $0.14 / $0.17 |
This is what the upcoming quarter is measured against:
| Segment | Q4 FY25 Revenue | Q4 FY25 EBITDA | Notes on the comp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | $604M | $151M | +7%/+10% last year — tough comp |
| Digital Real Estate | $466M | $152M | REA $318M, Move $148M; DRES +13% EBITDA — tough comp |
| Book Publishing | $494M | $50M | rev -4%, EBITDA -12% — easy comp |
| News Media | $545M | $28M | rev -4%, EBITDA -13% — easy comp |
| Other | — | ($59M) | corporate |
| Total | $2,109M | $322M | Net income (cont.) $86M; EPS $0.09; Adj. EPS $0.19 |
Full-year FY2025 finished at $8.45B revenue / $1.42B EBITDA / $0.89 adjusted EPS.
⚠️ One optics item: Q4 FY2025 reported net income was inflated by a ~$690M gain from the Foxtel sale in discontinued operations (reported EPS of $1.31 that quarter). There is no comparable one-timer this year, so total net income will look sharply lower Y/Y — focus on continuing operations and Total Segment EBITDA, which is how management and the Street judge the business.
No formal guidance, but management explicitly signaled a "strong fiscal finish." Rough framing: - If Q4 EBITDA grows in line with the 9-month ~10% pace, that implies ~$350M in the quarter and a ~$1.55B full-year FY2026 Segment EBITDA (a new record, +~10% vs FY25). - Revenue growing 5–8% Y/Y would put Q4 around $2.2–2.3B and full-year FY26 near $8.9–9.0B. - A print in line with these levels would extend the EBITDA-growth streak to 13 consecutive quarters and likely deliver a record year — the company's stated goal.
FX is a tailwind again: the AUD averaged ~$0.69 and GBP ~$1.35 in Q3 FY26 vs ~$0.63/$1.26 a year earlier. The Q4 GBP comp ($1.33 last year) is tougher, but currency should still flatter reported (not adjusted) numbers.
This is now the central bull thesis. Management is positioning News Corp as an "AI inputs company" and has a growing roster of deals: OpenAI and, more recently, Meta partnerships; Bloomberg buying Dow Jones AI rights; and a share of the $1.5B Anthropic settlement expected to begin flowing later this calendar year. Watch for: - Any sizing/quantification of AI revenue (management has been coy but said the impact "will be visible in our accounts over the next few years"). - Updates on the Perplexity litigation (now joined by other media companies) and the "content-scraping" enforcement push. - The realtor.com ChatGPT app and Factiva AI features as monetization proof points. - Management flagged new content-licensing revenue as a Q4 benefit for News Media specifically.
At the March investor briefing, Dow Jones laid out a path to $1B annual Segment EBITDA within 5 years (vs ~$588M in FY25). Key drivers to track in Q4: - Risk & Compliance (+19% in Q3 to $100M) and Dow Jones Energy (+12% to $77M, ~90% retention) — the high-margin Professional Information engine (~40% of DJ revenue, larger share of EBITDA). - WSJ pricing actions — new digital list price raised to $44.99, higher intro/tenured pricing. Management guided to improving ARPU and notably higher digital net adds in Q4, driven by enterprise partnerships (Q3 digital-only subs +9%; WSJ digital +11% to 4.3M). - Whether the Middle East volatility (Dragonfly/Oxford Analytica) continues to drive risk-intelligence demand.
Bulls will point to: record-year trajectory, 13th straight EBITDA-growth quarter, the compounding AI-licensing option value, Dow Jones' path to $1B EBITDA, Realtor's re-acceleration ahead of any housing recovery, and an aggressive buyback against "undervalued" shares.
Bears/risks to watch: stock already up ~16% into the print and near highs (expectations elevated); housing/mortgage-rate sensitivity at Realtor and REA; News Media EBITDA erosion (California Post drag + News UK); tough Dow Jones/DRES year-ago comps; FX-flattered reported growth; and the fact that AI revenue remains largely unquantified — a "show me" catalyst that could disappoint if no numbers are given.
Consensus is effectively priced for another clean, record-setting quarter. The results themselves are likely to be solid given management's confident tone; the swing factors for the stock reaction are the AI-licensing commentary (any quantification is the biggest potential positive surprise), Realtor.com's trajectory and housing outlook, and the pace/size of the buyback. Given the run into the print, the bar is higher than it was three months ago — the quality of the narrative on AI monetization may matter as much as the headline beat.
Note: I focused on the most recent primary sources — the Q3 FY2026 earnings call/release (May 2026) and the year-ago Q4 FY2025 release. All growth-streak, guidance and strategic-initiative characterizations reflect management's own commentary on the Q3 FY2026 call. Actual consensus estimates were not available in my sources, so the Q4/FY2026 figures above are illustrative projections, not Street numbers.