Date clarification: August 5, 2026 is today, not tomorrow. This preview treats the fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter report and earnings call as scheduled for Wednesday, August 5, 2026. No fiscal 4Q26 release appeared in the available filings database at the time of research.
News Corp enters fiscal year-end earnings with strong operating momentum but a more demanding setup than the headline numbers alone suggest.
The central question is no longer whether News Corp can deliver another year of record profitability—it would take only a very weak fourth quarter to miss that mark. The more important questions are:
My bias is constructive. Dow Jones and Digital Real Estate Services should remain the principal earnings engines, while Book Publishing faces an easy comparison. The clearest risk is News Media, where print pressure and California Post investment could offset licensing gains.
Fiscal 3Q26 was strong:
| Fiscal 3Q26 | Result | YoY growth | Adjusted growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.185B | 9% | 4% |
| Total Segment EBITDA | $343M | 18% | 13% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.21 | 24% | — |
| Free cash flow, nine months | $535M | (1)% | — |
The difference between reported and adjusted growth is important. Foreign exchange added $88 million to third-quarter revenue and $16 million to Segment EBITDA. Investors should therefore judge 4Q26 primarily on adjusted or constant-currency growth rather than the headline percentage.
For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, News Corp generated:
Management said in May that fourth-quarter trading had started strongly and that it expected another record year of profitability.
I did not find a reliable current consensus estimate in the available research feeds, so the figures below are an investor benchmark—not Wall Street consensus.
| Metric | Fiscal 4Q25 actual | Constructive 4Q26 benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.109B | $2.25B–$2.35B |
| Total Segment EBITDA | $322M | $350M–$380M |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.19 | $0.22–$0.26 |
| EBITDA margin | 15.3% | At least 15.5%–16% |
That would imply approximate fiscal 2026 results of:
The company needs only $212 million of fourth-quarter Segment EBITDA to exceed fiscal 2025’s record $1.415 billion. Consequently, merely announcing “record profitability” should not be enough to impress investors. The quality of segment growth and fiscal 2027 commentary will matter more.
Dow Jones is the primary driver of News Corp’s transition from a traditional media company toward a recurring-revenue information-services business.
Fiscal 3Q26 results included:
Management expects Dow Jones to reach $1 billion of annual Segment EBITDA within five years, versus $588 million in fiscal 2025. It has characterized that target as primarily organic, with only small bolt-on acquisitions embedded in the plan.
A strong quarter would probably mean high-single-digit revenue growth, double-digit EBITDA growth and further margin expansion.
Fiscal 3Q26 Digital Real Estate Services revenue rose 17%, while Segment EBITDA increased 25%. Adjusted growth was 8% and 16%, respectively.
REA’s third-quarter revenue increased 20% to $325 million, though currency contributed approximately 12 percentage points. Constant-currency growth was 8%, supported by Australian pricing, product upgrades and mix.
Management also disclosed that Australian residential buy listings increased 19% in April, giving the fourth quarter a favorable start.
Investors should separate:
Realtor.com may be the most meaningful swing factor relative to expectations.
Third-quarter revenue increased 10% to $148 million, despite elevated mortgage rates and low existing-home sales. The improvement was driven by:
Management said Realtor.com’s trailing revenue per existing-home sale was more than 20% above the comparable fiscal 2022 level. If that improvement persists, the business could have substantial operating leverage when housing transactions eventually recover.
The risk is that mortgage rates and housing affordability finally overwhelm recent company-specific improvements.
Book Publishing delivered a strong fiscal third quarter:
Growth benefited materially from Rachel Reid’s Game Changers series and interest generated by the Heated Rivalry adaptation.
The fiscal fourth-quarter comparison is relatively favorable: in 4Q25, HarperCollins revenue fell 4% to $494 million and Segment EBITDA declined 12% to $50 million.
Management entered the quarter expecting a stronger frontlist, including releases from J.D. Vance, Ann Patchett, Alex Aster and Laurie Gilmore.
Book Publishing should contribute to growth, but investors should avoid extrapolating a title-driven quarter too aggressively.
News Media remains the portfolio’s weakest operating segment.
Fiscal 3Q26 revenue increased 5% because of currency, while adjusted revenue declined 2%. Segment EBITDA fell 55% to $15 million, reflecting:
Management expected some fourth-quarter benefit from new content-licensing revenue, but also incremental California Post costs.
A stabilization in EBITDA would be a positive surprise. Another large decline would raise questions about whether investment in new news products is diluting the value created elsewhere.
Management has positioned News Corp as an “AI inputs” company because it owns current journalism, archives, books, real-estate data and specialist business information.
The company has discussed:
The strategic logic is credible: high-quality, continuously updated data should have value to AI developers. But investors still lack enough information to value the opportunity.
A vague reiteration of the AI opportunity would be less valuable than modest but concrete financial disclosure.
At March 31, News Corp held:
Nine-month operating cash flow was $815 million, but higher capital expenditures left free cash flow nearly flat at $535 million. Management nevertheless expected strong full-year free-cash-flow growth.
That commitment is worth testing against the fourth-quarter result. A strong EBITDA quarter accompanied by weak cash conversion would be a blemish.
News Corp repurchased $456 million of shares during the first nine months, including $193 million in the third quarter. An August 4 ASX notification showed that the company had spent approximately $402 million under the newer $1 billion authorization alone through August 3.
The buyback has already reduced diluted shares from approximately 570 million in fiscal 3Q25 to 556 million in fiscal 3Q26, supporting per-share growth.
Investors should listen for:
NWS closed at $32.74 on August 4, 2026.
That was approximately:
The stock has recovered meaningfully from its winter selloff but is not entering earnings at a one-year high. That should leave room for upside if News Corp combines a solid beat with stronger fiscal 2027 commentary. Conversely, the recent rebound makes a merely in-line report less likely to drive a major re-rating.
The bar should be higher than simply producing a record fiscal year. News Corp is likely to clear that threshold comfortably.
A genuinely strong report would demonstrate:
The most important metric is likely Total Segment EBITDA, but the most important narrative will be the quality and durability of growth at Dow Jones and Digital Real Estate. If those businesses remain strong and management turns AI licensing into a measurable earnings stream, the case that News Corp deserves to be valued as an information-services and digital-property portfolio—not primarily as a newspaper company—will strengthen materially.
Research basis: News Corp fiscal 3Q26 earnings release and call dated May 7, 2026; fiscal 3Q26 Form 10-Q; Dow Jones Investor Briefing dated March 16, 2026; fiscal 4Q25 earnings release; August 2026 buyback filings; and NWS market-price data through August 4, 2026.