O Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
O Report AFFO per share (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$1.10 vs. cons ~$1.09 MEDIUM
O Report Investment volume (Q2 2026, pro-rata) BEAT pred ~$2.5B vs. cons ~$2.0B MEDIUM
O Report Same-store rent growth (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~+0.9% vs. cons ~+1.1% LOW
O Guide FY2026 AFFO/share guidance (raise) BETTER guide ~$4.43-4.46 (mid ~$4.445) vs. cons ~$4.43 (FY2026) MEDIUM
O Guide FY2026 investment volume guidance BETTER guide ~$10.0B vs. cons ~$9.5B (FY2026) MEDIUM
O Guide FY2026 occupancy guidance UNCHANGED guide ~98.5% vs. cons ~98.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
O Guide FY2026 credit loss / bad-debt guidance UNCHANGED guide ~40bps vs. cons ~40bps (FY2026) LOW
O Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% MEDIUM
O Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (STABILIZE) Likely beat-and-raise (third straight) after a ~4% fade from July highs supports a modest positive day-1 residual, but AFFO quality concerns (episodic lease-termination income flattering results, thin ~1% same-store growth, lower-yield fund-mix cap rates) cap upside revisions. As a long-duration bond-proxy, O's post-print drift is dominated by the 10-year, so the idiosyncratic reaction largely holds rather than extends—net stabilize with a slight positive bias. LOW