| O |
Report |
AFFO per share (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.11 vs. cons $1.09 |
MEDIUM |
| O |
Report |
Total revenue (Q2 2026) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1.44B vs. cons $1.435B |
MEDIUM |
| O |
Report |
Q2 investment volume (100% basis) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.4B vs. cons ~$2.23B (implied quarterly pace toward $9.5B FY target) |
MEDIUM |
| O |
Guide |
FY2026 AFFO/share guidance range |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.425 (mid) vs. cons $4.425 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| O |
Guide |
FY2026 total investment volume guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$10.0B vs. cons/prior guide $9.5B (FY2026) |
LOW |
| O |
Guide |
FY2026 same-store rent growth guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~1.15% (mid of 1.0-1.3%) vs. cons 1.15% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| O |
Guide |
FY2026 lease termination income run-rate |
LOWER |
guide ~$45-50M full-year maintained but Q2 contribution moderating to ~$8-10M vs. Q1's $40.2M run-rate implied by consensus models ~$15M (FY2026/Q2-Q4 cadence) |
LOW |
| O |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+0.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| O |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.1% (FADE) |
An in-line-to-modest headline AFFO beat and reaffirmed FY guidance likely spark a small relief bounce given the stock's ~4% pre-earnings slide versus a strongly rallying S&P, but the pop should fade over the week as analysts recognize the implicit out-period math: Q1's outsized $40.2M lease-termination income (already near the top of the raised $45-50M full-year range) must roll off sharply in Q2-Q4, meaning underlying same-store/AFFO growth trends toward the more modest 1.0-1.3% guided range once the non-recurring boost is stripped out, prompting light trims to Q3/Q4 FFO estimates even after a Q2 'beat', consistent with net-lease REITs continuing to underperform a risk-on equity tape amid elevated rate volatility. |
LOW |