OXY Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
OXY Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.25 vs. cons ~$1.08 MEDIUM
OXY Report Total production (MMBoe/d) IN-LINE pred ~1.42 vs. cons ~1.43 MEDIUM
OXY Report Free cash flow ($B, Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.7B vs. cons ~$1.4B MEDIUM
OXY Guide FY26 production midpoint UNCHANGED guide ~1.44 vs. cons ~1.44 MMBoe/d (FY26) MEDIUM
OXY Guide FY26 capex UNCHANGED guide ~$5.7B vs. cons ~$5.7B (FY26, range $5.5-5.9B) HIGH
OXY Guide Principal debt reduction path BETTER guide ~$10B line-of-sight this year vs. cons ~$11B (FY26 exit) MEDIUM
OXY Guide Midstream/marketing pre-tax income BETTER guide ~$1.1B vs. cons ~$1.0B (FY26) MEDIUM
OXY Guide Capital-return framework (post-$10B buybacks) UNKNOWN guide ~opportunistic/undefined vs. cons ~$0.5B buyback expectation (2H26) LOW
OXY Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
OXY Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) Beat is largely commodity/oil-price driven and already discounted given OXY trades as a high-beta oil proxy; hedge collar (~$76 ceiling) and PSC/Al Hosn volume drags cap realized upside and the FY production midpoint (1.44) is an implicit soft-guide, so out-period EPS revisions stay flat-to-down despite the headline beat. The deleveraging/$10B milestone supports the initial pop, but Iran/Hormuz de-escalation risk and mean-reverting crude pull the residual back after day 1. LOW