I'll research PEG (Public Service Enterprise Group) to build a well-informed earnings preview. Let me start by gathering recent filings, transcripts, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and gather more context.Now let me gather recent news, any interim filings/press releases, and stock price performance to round out the preview.Let me read the July 1 investor update 8-K and the earnings date press release.Let me pull last year's Q2 2025 results for the year-over-year comparison base.I now have what I need. Let me quickly compute a few performance figures before writing.Here is the earnings preview.

PSEG (NYSE: PEG) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Report date: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 (call 11:00 a.m. ET) · CEO Ralph LaRossa, CFO Dan Cregg

The one-line setup

PSEG heads into Q2 with a strong Q1 already in the bank (weather-aided), full-year guidance of $4.28–$4.40 intact, and a stock that has drifted lower into the print. Q2 is seasonally PSEG's lowest earnings quarter, so the numbers matter less than the messaging on (1) whether summer trends support a guidance raise, (2) New Jersey regulatory/political dynamics, and (3) the growing menu of "upside-to-plan" catalysts (nuclear uprate, new nuclear, transmission, load growth).

1. What to watch on the headline

Full-year guidance is the real event. Management reaffirmed $4.28–$4.40 non-GAAP operating EPS (≈$4.34 midpoint) at Q1. Q1 alone delivered $1.55, or ~36% of the midpoint — well above a normal seasonal run-rate — leaving ~$2.79 to earn over Q2–Q4. On the Q1 call, CFO Dan Cregg effectively said the guidance decision hinges on "what the summer ends up looking like." Watch for either a narrow-to-the-top-half or an outright raise if summer weather/load cooperated.
Tough YoY comp for the Power segment. Q2 2025 non-GAAP EPS was $0.77 (PSE&G $332M, Power & Other just $52M non-GAAP). The prior-year quarter still carried ~2 months of the zero emission certificate (ZEC) program, which ended May 31, 2025 — so Q2 2026 laps a ZEC headwind at Power, partly offset by higher capacity revenue (the 2025/26 PJM auction cleared $329/MW-day, effective June 1, 2025).
Salem 2 refueling outage. PSEG began a refueling outage at Salem Unit 2 in April 2026, so expect lower Q2 nuclear generation volume year-on-year — a modest drag on Power output. (Q1 nuclear ran a 95.5% capacity factor / 8 TWh.)
GAAP vs. non-GAAP noise. Remember PSEG's GAAP number swings on Nuclear Decommissioning Trust and mark-to-market items (Q2 2025 GAAP EPS was $1.17 vs. $0.77 operating). Focus on operating EPS and the segment waterfall.

2. PSE&G (the regulated engine) — steady, decoupled, growing

~90%+ of earnings are regulated. The Conservation Incentive Program (CIP) decouples margin from weather/volumes, so customer count growth (~1% residential) and rate-base investment drive results, not the hot/cold quarter.
2026 capex ~$4.2B (on ~$800M spent in Q1); 5-year regulated plan $22.5–$25.5B through 2030 supporting 6%–7.5% rate-base CAGR. Watch for confirmation of pace and any incremental transmission wins.
Bills/affordability: BGS auction results cut residential electric supply cost ~1.8% effective June 1, 2026; residential gas rates held flat for the winter. A FERC ruling on PJM transmission cost allocation is expected to refund >$100M to PSE&G customers — a political/affordability positive still being litigated.

3. New Jersey regulatory & political overhang (biggest qualitative swing factor)

Executive Order 1 / utility business-model review: The BPU consultant study was expected this summer, with a stakeholder process running through year-end. Any commentary on ROE, performance-based ratemaking, or the distribution model is market-moving. Management has framed PSE&G's reliability/customer-satisfaction record as a strength going into a "performance"-focused review.
Affordability remains a hot political topic under Gov. Sherrill; PSEG has partnered with the state to keep 2026 electric rates flat.
PJM Reliability Backstop Auction (RBA): A proposed one-time procurement to accelerate dispatchable generation online by 2031. PSEG filed jointly with other EDCs arguing cost responsibility should sit with load-serving entities, not the utilities/LDCs. Expect updates on rules and cost-allocation — LaRossa has urged patience ("let's all just be a little bit calm").

4. Growth optionality — the bull case beyond 6–8%

Management repeatedly frames these as incremental to the reaffirmed 6%–8% operating-EPS CAGR (through 2030):

New nuclear: NJ lifted its decades-long moratorium (signed at the Salem site). PSEG is positioning its Salem County site (early site permit, completed port construction, skilled labor) as a leading candidate — though management stresses it needs federal + state support and offtake agreements, and only on a utility-like/rate-based structure, not merchant.
Salem power uprate: Targeted for the 2027 or 2029 refueling outage; capital already embedded in the plan. Backed by the nuclear PTC (preserved in July 2025 tax legislation) and 100% bonus depreciation.
20-year license extensions for the NJ units (Salem licenses run to 2036/2040) — depreciation already reflects the expected NRC approval.
Transmission open window (summer): PSEG will bid selectively; wins would be additive to the capex plan.
Data-center/large load: Inquiries have leveled off around ~11,000 MW in NJ (management assumes only ~10–20% converts). Note NJ lacks the tax incentives that draw hyperscalers elsewhere, so the near-term NJ opportunity is muted; PSEG can also serve load via its PA Peach Bottom units and grid deliverability.

5. Balance sheet & capital returns

No new equity and no asset sales needed to fund the 5-year plan — management's stated key differentiator vs. peers.
Dividend: 2026 indicative rate $2.68/share, ~6% increase, 15th consecutive annual hike; yield ~3.4% at current price.
Ample liquidity (~$3.9B at end of Q1), limited variable-rate exposure (~4% of debt). Watch interest expense — higher long-term rates have been a recurring ~$0.01/qtr drag.

6. Stock setup / positioning

PEG closed ~$76.6 on Aug 3, down ~5% YTD while the utilities sector (XLU) is up ~3% — meaningful relative underperformance.
The stock is ~12% off its mid-February peak (~$87) and has slid ~6% since early July into the print, so expectations appear reset lower — a potential setup for a relief move if guidance is nudged up or NJ regulatory tone stays constructive.
July 1 "updated investor materials" posting appears routine (no new guidance implied).

Bottom line — what would move the stock

Bullish	Bearish
Guidance narrowed to top half or raised on strong summer	Guidance merely reaffirmed with cautious summer commentary
Constructive tone/details on EO1 business-model review	Signs the BPU review pressures allowed ROE/model
Tangible new-nuclear or Salem uprate milestones	RBA/cost-allocation risk shifting burden to utilities
New transmission wins; load-growth conversions	Salem 2 outage / ZEC roll-off dragging Power below expectations

Given the decoupled, mostly-regulated model and reaffirmed 6–8% CAGR, the fundamental print should be low-drama; the guidance framing and New Jersey regulatory/PJM commentary are the swing factors for the Aug 4 reaction.

Note: My document set runs through the Q1 2026 call (May 5) and PSEG's mid-July logistics releases; I did not find Q2-specific consensus estimates or a pre-announcement in the available tools, so expectations above are framed qualitatively rather than against a specific Street EPS number.