Earnings Preview — Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG)

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup is modestly constructive — consensus sits below the Q1 beat pace and management has not raised guidance, leaving room for a beat on Non-GAAP Operating EPS, but the real swing factor is whether a hot summer drove incremental gas and nuclear output above seasonal norms.

Heading into the Q2 2026 print, the bar looks manageable: consensus Non-GAAP Operating EPS of $0.79 is well below Q1’s $1.56 actual (seasonally expected) and only modestly above the $0.77 Q2 2025 actual, implying the Street is not pricing in meaningful upside. Management maintained full-year 2026 guidance of $4.28–$4.40/share after Q1 and explicitly flagged summer performance as the key variable for any potential guidance revision, suggesting tone is cautiously optimistic but not yet ready to raise. Estimate revisions since the Q1 print have been slightly negative — the 2026 FY consensus has drifted from $4.43 to $4.38 — creating a modest cushion rather than a high bar. The stock has underperformed both XLU and the S&P 500 since the Q1 print (PEG −03.9% vs. XLU −04.3% vs. SPY +4.7%), suggesting the market has not priced in a beat and the multiple remains undemanding relative to peers. The wildcard is nuclear capacity factor and weather-driven gas volumes: Q1 benefited from one of the harshest winters in decades, and a hot summer could provide a similar tailwind — or disappoint if weather normalizes — making the Q2 nuclear output and O&M execution the single biggest swing factor for the print.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a low bar on Non-GAAP Operating EPS at $0.79 vs. $0.77 a year ago — a near-flat YoY hurdle that leaves room for a beat. PSE&G utility revenue is the bigger swing factor, as nuclear output and weather-driven gas demand could surprise in either direction.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot

Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data. Q2 2026 consensus as of August 3, 2026. PSE&G Utility Revenue = “Total revenue — PSEG”; PSEG Power Revenue = “Total revenue — Power”; Non-GAAP Operating EPS = “EPS-Diluted — Operating”. FY 2026 CapEx consensus of $4.52B vs. PSE&G-only guidance of ~$4.2B; total PSEG CapEx plan is $24–$28B over 2026–2030.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data. PEG has beaten Non-GAAP Operating EPS consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with the two misses (Q2 2024, Q1 2025) driven by one-time items and weather normalization respectively; the consistent beat pattern on utility revenue (7 of 8 quarters) reflects ongoing rate base growth execution.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management has not revised guidance since the Q1 2026 earnings call — the $4.28–$4.40 FY 2026 Non-GAAP Operating EPS range remains intact. Tone is cautiously optimistic, with CFO Cregg explicitly flagging summer performance as the gating factor for any potential upward revision.

Source: PEG Q1 2026 Earnings Call transcript (May 5, 2026); PEG Q4 2025 / Investor Day guidance (February 2026). No 8-K, conference, or investor day guidance update has been issued since the Q1 2026 earnings call.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: FY 2026 Non-GAAP Operating EPS estimates have drifted slightly lower since the Q1 print ($4.43 → $4.38), while Q2 2026 estimates have also ticked down ($0.89 → $0.79), creating a modest cushion vs. guidance. Estimates are tracking below the guidance midpoint of $4.34, suggesting the Street is not yet pricing in a full-year beat.

Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data. Post-Q1 baseline uses as-of date of May 10, 2026 (5 trading days after May 5, 2026 earnings). The modest downward drift in Q2 and FY 2026 EPS estimates since the Q1 print reflects seasonal normalization expectations rather than any fundamental deterioration — the gap between current consensus ($4.38) and the guidance midpoint ($4.34) remains a thin but positive cushion.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: PEG has underperformed both XLU and the S&P 500 since the Q1 2026 earnings print, declining ~3.9% vs. XLU −4.3% and SPY +4.7% — the underperformance vs. SPY reflects sector rotation out of defensives into risk assets, while the slight outperformance vs. XLU suggests PEG-specific fundamentals (nuclear optionality, NJ regulatory wins) are providing modest relative support.

PEG vs. XLU vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings Date (May 5, 2026). Source: Stock Price Data.

Since the Q1 2026 earnings print on May 5, 2026, PEG has declined from $79.73 to $76.62 (−3.9%), modestly outperforming XLU (−4.3%) but significantly lagging the S&P 500 (+4.7%). The underperformance vs. the broader market is consistent with the sector-wide rotation out of defensive utilities as risk appetite improved following the easing of trade tensions in May–June. PEG’s slight outperformance vs. XLU peers reflects the company’s differentiated nuclear optionality (NJ moratorium lifted, Salem site positioning) and the FERC transmission cost allocation win, which provided incremental positive catalysts not available to pure-play regulated utilities. No material event-driven dislocations are visible in the price series — the stock has traded in a narrow $76–$80 range throughout the period, suggesting the market is in a “wait and see” mode ahead of the Q2 print and any summer-driven guidance revision.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the formal lifting of New Jersey’s nuclear construction moratorium (April 2026), which positions PSEG’s Salem site as a leading candidate for new nuclear deployment and represents a long-term earnings upside option not yet in consensus estimates.

• April 2026 — NJ Nuclear Moratorium Lifted: Governor Sherrill signed legislation lifting New Jersey’s decades-long moratorium on new nuclear construction at the Salem site. PSEG is actively engaging with the state’s new Nuclear Task Force. Implication: Potential long-term earnings upside from new nuclear build at Salem (early site permit in hand); requires federal support, state offtake, and hyperscaler participation before PSEG commits capital — not in current 6–8% CAGR guidance.
• Q1 2026 (May 5, 2026) — FERC Transmission Cost Allocation Win: FERC issued an order supporting PSEG’s objection to PJM transmission cost allocations, expected to result in significant customer refunds. Implication: Positive for customer affordability and regulatory goodwill in NJ; reduces political risk around rate increases.
• Q1 2026 (May 5, 2026) — BGS Auction Results: Basic Generation Service auction results will lower residential electric bills by 1.8% starting June 1, 2026. Electric rates kept flat in 2026 in coordination with the governor’s office and BPU. Implication: Reduces affordability-driven political risk; constructive for regulatory relationship.
• Q1 2026 (May 5, 2026) — Salem Unit 2 Breaker-to-Breaker Run: Salem Unit 2 completed a second consecutive breaker-to-breaker operating run before its April refueling outage, contributing to a 95.5% nuclear capacity factor and 8 TWh of carbon-free generation in Q1. Implication: Strong nuclear execution is a key earnings driver; Q2 capacity factor will be a key metric to watch given the refueling outage timing.
• Ongoing — PJM Reliability Backstop Auction (RBA): PJM is advancing a one-time emergency reliability backstop procurement auction to accelerate new dispatchable generation by 2031. PSEG is advocating for appropriate cost allocation to load-serving entities rather than distribution companies. Implication: Outcome could affect PSE&G customer bills and PSEG’s competitive generation positioning; management is monitoring but not yet committing to market-based solutions.
• Ongoing — Large Load Pipeline Leveling Off: The large load inquiry pipeline has stabilized at ~11,000 MW (primarily data centers), with management noting the pace of new inquiries has slowed as the initial wave of data center interest has been captured. Hyperscalers are following tax incentives to other states. Implication: Near-term NJ data center conversion remains uncertain; only 10–20% of the pipeline expected to convert based on historical precedent.
• Ongoing — PJM Capacity Market Stress (Peer Read-Through): Exelon (Q2 2026 call) reported PJM demand hit a record 168 GW in July, with the capacity auction falling short of reliability requirements by 6.8 GW for the third consecutive year. Absent the FERC price cap of $330/MW-day, PJM’s own simulation shows prices would have cleared at ~$555/MW-day. Implication: Structurally supportive for PSEG’s nuclear capacity revenues and the case for new in-state generation in NJ.

7. Peer Commentary Read-Through (Q2 2026 Earnings Calls)

Key Takeaway: Q2 2026 peer earnings calls (July 23–31, 2026) paint a uniformly constructive backdrop for PEG: PJM capacity scarcity is worsening (bullish for nuclear revenues), data center load growth is accelerating across all utility footprints (validating NJ pipeline optionality), and every major peer reaffirmed or raised full-year guidance — setting a positive tone heading into PEG’s August 4 print.

Note: All peer commentary below is sourced exclusively from Q2 2026 earnings calls and the Entergy June 2026 Investor Day — events occurring after PEG’s last earnings (May 5, 2026) and directly relevant to PEG’s current reporting quarter (Q2 2026).

Exelon (EXC) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 30, 2026)

PJM Capacity Scarcity — Directly Bullish for PEG Nuclear: Exelon reported that PJM demand hit a record 168 GW in July, with the most recent capacity auction clearing at the FERC-approved price cap for the third consecutive auction. The market fell short of PJM’s reliability requirement by 6.8 GW (larger than the prior 6.5 GW shortfall), equivalent to roughly seven nuclear reactors of missing supply. Absent the $330/MW-day FERC price cap, PJM’s own simulation shows prices would have cleared at ~$555/MW-day across the footprint and $777/MW-day in ComEd. During the July heat event, power prices surged tenfold from ~$80 to ~$800/MWh. Read-through for PEG: Structurally supportive for PSEG’s nuclear capacity revenues and reinforces the case for new in-state generation at the Salem site. The worsening supply shortfall validates PSEG’s advocacy for the PJM Reliability Backstop Auction.

New Jersey Battery Storage: Exelon’s Atlantic City Electric (ACE) announced a 500 MW battery energy storage project in Pittsgrove, NJ — the single largest battery storage installation in PJM — representing ~$1 billion in investments not currently in Exelon’s plan. Read-through for PEG: Confirms active investment in NJ grid infrastructure; could compete with or complement PSEG’s own grid modernization investments.

Guidance: Exelon reaffirmed FY 2026 EPS guidance of $2.81–$2.91/share and long-term growth near the top end of 5–7% through 2029.

FirstEnergy (FE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 29, 2026)

New Jersey Rate Case Filing: FirstEnergy plans to make a base rate case filing in NJ this quarter (Q3 2026), with pre-filing meetings already held with the administration and BPU staff. The proposal will be consistent with Governor’s Executive Order 1, designed to mitigate initial customer bill impact. Management noted the NJ commission and administration have been “much more collaborative than prior rhetoric might have led people to believe.” Read-through for PEG: Constructive NJ regulatory environment is a positive read-through for PSEG’s own ongoing regulatory interactions and rate recovery efforts. A collaborative BPU posture reduces execution risk on PSE&G’s capital recovery.

Data Center Load Growth: Total forecasted data center demand increased 30% since Q1 to approximately 25 GW across FE’s footprint. FE contracted an additional 2.1 GW in Q2, bringing total contracted demand to 6.4 GW. Industrial load grew over 4% on a weather-adjusted basis. Read-through for PEG: Broad-based data center demand growth across PJM validates the structural load growth thesis, even as NJ-specific conversions remain constrained by the absence of tax incentives.

Guidance: Reaffirmed 2026 core EPS guidance of $2.62–$2.82/share and 5-year $36B capital plan; long-term growth near the top end of 6–8% through 2030.

NextEra Energy (NEE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 24, 2026)

Nuclear Recontracting & New Nuclear: NEE has up to 1.5 GW of nuclear recontracting opportunities through 2032 and is advancing the recommissioning of Duane Arnold (back online no later than Q1 2029). NEE is evaluating advanced nuclear and SMR co-location opportunities at existing nuclear sites (6 GW of SMR opportunities identified). Any new nuclear build requires “the right commercial terms and conditions, with appropriate risk-sharing mechanisms.” Read-through for PEG: Validates the industry-wide push toward nuclear recontracting and new build; PSEG’s Salem site positioning and early site permit are competitive advantages in this environment.

Power Demand Acceleration: FPL updated large load expectations from 6 GW to 8 GW by 2032 and has ~21 GW of large load interest with advanced discussions for 12 GW. Energy Resources recontracting projects priced at a premium of ~$20/MWh above recent realized pricing, reflecting tight supply-demand. Read-through for PEG: Higher power prices and tight supply-demand support PSEG Power’s nuclear revenue outlook above the PTC floor.

Guidance: NEE reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS range of $3.92–$4.02, targeting the high end; 8%+ EPS CAGR through 2032.

American Electric Power (AEP) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 30, 2026)

Data Center Load Growth — Accelerating Nationally: AEP now has 69 GW of contracted load additions through 2030 (up 6 GW from Q1), backed by fully executed ESAs and LOIs. AEP has collected nearly $2 billion in cash or collateral for load commitments in ERCOT. The $78B capital plan does not yet anticipate this magnitude of load growth, indicating potential for further capital plan increases. Read-through for PEG: The scale of hyperscaler commitments nationally reinforces the structural demand thesis; NJ’s lack of tax incentives remains the key constraint on PEG-specific conversion, but the overall power demand environment is supportive of nuclear capacity pricing.

PJM Governance & Resource Adequacy: AEP noted the “pace and intensity of productive conversations with PJM has significantly increased” since Q1, with a July 23 Technical Conference focused on governance, interconnect speed, and resource adequacy. AEP is optimistic about alignment on solutions. Read-through for PEG: Progress on PJM governance reform is constructive for the Reliability Backstop Auction process that PSEG is actively engaged in.

Guidance: AEP raised FY 2026 guidance to $6.55/share (from $6.15–$6.45) and reaffirmed 7–9% annual EPS growth with a 9%+ CAGR through 2030.

Dominion Energy (D) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 31, 2026)

Nuclear Contracting — Millstone Decision Imminent: Dominion expects a solicitation decision “in the near term” from Connecticut DEEP on Millstone’s bid in the zero-carbon energy RFP. The existing Millstone PPA is expected to save CT customers over $300 million in 2026 and over $900 million over its 10-year life. Read-through for PEG: Demonstrates the value of long-term nuclear contracting in the current power price environment; PSEG’s Salem fleet could pursue similar state-backed offtake agreements as part of the NJ Nuclear Task Force process.

Data Center Demand Records: Nine of the Dom zone’s top 10 all-time peak days occurred in 2026, including the eight highest summer peak days in the last two months. Dominion now has over 53 GW of data center capacity in various stages of contracting (12 GW contracted under ESAs). Read-through for PEG: Record summer peak demand in the PJM/Mid-Atlantic region is directly supportive of PSEG’s Q2 nuclear output and capacity revenue realization.

Guidance: Dominion reaffirmed all FY 2026 financial guidance provided on the Q4 call.

Southern Company (SO) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 30, 2026)

New Nuclear Advocacy: Southern Company CEO Chris Womack emphasized the country needs “some more nuclear units in operation” particularly in the mid-2030s, and is having conversations with hyperscalers about their role in new nuclear projects, including potentially taking on cost overrun risk above budgeted amounts for AP1000s. Read-through for PEG: Hyperscaler willingness to absorb cost overrun risk is a key enabler for new nuclear economics; directly relevant to PSEG’s Salem new build discussions with the NJ Nuclear Task Force.

Record Load Growth: Weather-normal retail electricity sales YTD were 2.3% higher than H1 2025 — the highest retail sales growth through June in nearly two decades. Commercial sales grew 7.4% in Q2. Data center usage was 55% higher vs. Q2 2025. Read-through for PEG: Broad-based load growth across the Southeast confirms the structural demand thesis; summer heat driving record usage is a positive read-through for PSEG’s Q2 nuclear output.

Guidance: SO now projects FY 2026 adjusted EPS “near or at the top” of the $4.50–$4.60 guidance range, up from prior expectations.

WEC Energy Group (WEC) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 29, 2026)

Data Center Execution: Microsoft’s first data center facility in Pleasant Prairie is fully operational; WEC is preparing to serve a forecasted demand increase of 2.6 GW through 2030 from this corridor. Oracle’s Vantage site (1.3 GW forecast, potential 3.5 GW) is advancing. Total weather-normal retail electric sales grew 4.2% in Q2. Read-through for PEG: Demonstrates that data center load can convert from pipeline to actual contracted demand — a key uncertainty for PEG’s 11,000 MW NJ pipeline.

Nuclear PPA Recontracting: WEC’s Point Beach nuclear PPA (500 MW) comes due in December 2030, with replacement cost estimated at $2–$2.5B/GW. Capital is “an option” for replacement. Read-through for PEG: Highlights the scarcity value of existing nuclear assets and the capital intensity of replacement — supportive of PSEG’s nuclear fleet valuation.

Guidance: WEC reaffirmed FY 2026 EPS guidance of $5.51–$5.61 and long-term 7–8% EPS CAGR through 2030, accelerating to the upper half of the range from 2028.

Xcel Energy (XEL) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 30, 2026)

Data Center Pipeline Confidence: Xcel has a 20 GW high-probability data center portfolio and expects to secure at least 1 GW by year-end 2026 and 4 additional GW by year-end 2027. For every GW of data center load, Xcel estimates ~$5–6B in generation investments. Read-through for PEG: The $5–6B/GW investment intensity metric provides a useful benchmark for sizing the potential capital opportunity from PEG’s 11,000 MW NJ pipeline if conversion rates improve.

Nuclear Stance: Xcel CFO stated he is “an unabashed fan of nuclear energy” but confirmed Xcel “will not be an early adopter of new nuclear power plants,” preferring wind, solar, storage, and gas. Read-through for PEG: Xcel’s reluctance to build new nuclear leaves PSEG as one of the few utilities actively pursuing new nuclear development, potentially commanding a scarcity premium for its Salem site positioning.

Guidance: Xcel reaffirmed FY 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04–$4.16 and expects 9%+ EPS growth through 2030.

Entergy (ETR) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 29, 2026) & Investor Day (June 9, 2026)

Unprecedented Load Growth: Entergy’s retail sales growth has doubled to 9% since two years ago, with 16% industrial growth. Total retail sales are projected to increase over 50% over the next five years. The company has a 7–12 GW hyperscale data center pipeline and 3–5 GW of traditional industrial interest. Meta’s Richland Parish project is a 5 GW, $50 billion investment — the largest data center project in the country. Read-through for PEG: The scale of hyperscaler commitments in Entergy’s territory underscores the national magnitude of AI-driven power demand; while NJ lacks comparable tax incentives, the structural demand environment supports PSEG’s nuclear capacity pricing.

New Nuclear — Customer-Led Approach: Entergy views new nuclear as “a very important baseload clean energy generation” but notes it “has to be customer led” with no firm timeline. Louisiana Governor Landry and DOE are advancing negotiations on nuclear life cycle innovation. Read-through for PEG: Consistent with PSEG’s own approach — new nuclear requires federal support, state offtake, and hyperscaler participation. The industry-wide alignment on this framework validates PSEG’s cautious but engaged posture.

Guidance: Entergy affirmed adjusted EPS guidance and outlooks through 2030 with >8% EPS growth; majority of year-over-year earnings increase expected in Q4 due to flex spending.

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

Source: Q2 2026 earnings call transcripts for EXC (Jul 30), FE (Jul 29), AEP (Jul 30), NEE (Jul 24), D (Jul 31), SO (Jul 30), WEC (Jul 29), XEL (Jul 30), ETR (Jul 29); Entergy Investor Day transcript (Jun 9, 2026). All events post-date PEG’s Q1 2026 earnings call (May 5, 2026) and are relevant to the current Q2 2026 reporting period.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: All open-market activity since the Q1 print consists exclusively of 10b5-1 planned sales by CEO Ralph LaRossa and COO Kim Hanemann — small, regular, pre-scheduled dispositions with no discretionary signal. No open-market buys have been filed. Nothing stands out as a meaningful insider signal.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings via Insider Transaction Data. Open-market buys (Form 4 code “P”) and discretionary sells (code “S” without 10b5-1 plan) only. All transactions above are coded “S” under pre-established 10b5-1 plans (overall_10b5 = True), indicating non-discretionary, obligation-driven dispositions. Director RSU awards (code “A”) on May 5, 2026 for multiple directors are excluded as non-open-market compensation grants. No open-market buys have been filed since the Q1 2026 earnings print.