| PGR |
Guide |
FY-year combined-rattarget - target |
UNCHANGED |
guide reaffirm <96 vs. running ~88 (Y2026) |
HIGH |
| PGR |
Guide |
22026 capital return/special dividend |
BETTER |
guide ~$6.6B div + ~$2.3B buyback vs. cons ~$6.6B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PGR |
Guide |
Growth stance (media spend / PIF) |
UNCHANGED |
guide grow as fast as possible at ≤96 CR, PIF ~+7% vs. cons ~+7% (H2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PGR |
Guide |
July shopping/conversion & margin trend (qualitative) |
UNKNOWN |
guide soft-market rate cuts, CR drift toward ~90 vs. cons ~88 (July, reported 8/19) |
LOW |
| PGR |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+0.8% |
— |
LOW |
| PGR |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.0% (STABILIZE) |
The bad print is already in the tape (-9% on 7/15) and shares have clawed back from ~$205 to ~$210, so the call is a narrative-only event with no fresh numbers until the July monthly release on 8/19. A well-executed Robinsons deep-dive plus a constructive capital-return signal (~$13B excess) supports a small day-1 relief bid, but out-period math is negative: sell-side keeps trimming as the combined ratio normalizes toward the 96 target and growth decelerates (NPE +6% vs +18% LY, PIF +7% vs +15% LY). Absent a hard capital-return commitment, the modest pop fades against downward EPS revisions, leaving a slightly negative 5-day residual that broadly stabilizes near pre-call levels. |
LOW |