| PGR |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026, already reported 7/15, discussed on call) |
BEAT |
pred ~4.86 vs. cons 4.77 |
HIGH |
| PGR |
Report |
Net premiums earned / revenue (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~21.57B vs. cons 21.60B |
HIGH |
| PGR |
Report |
Companywide combined ratio / underwriting margin (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~87.3 combined ratio (12.7% margin) vs. cons ~86.5 (13.5% margin) |
MEDIUM |
| PGR |
Guide |
FY2026 capital return (dividends + buybacks) |
BETTER |
guide ~8.9B (6.6B special/reg dividend + 2.3B buyback per Street est.) vs. cons ~8.0B matching FY2025 record payout (FY2026) |
LOW |
| PGR |
Guide |
Advertising spend growth cadence |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~15% y/y H2 spend growth vs. cons ~14% y/y (H2 2026) |
LOW |
| PGR |
Guide |
Personal Lines NPW/PIF growth trajectory |
LOWER |
guide ~4% NPW growth vs. cons ~6% NPW growth (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PGR |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-0.4% |
— |
LOW |
| PGR |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.1% (FADE) |
Numbers were already public via the 7/15 monthly release and 8/3 10-Q, so the call itself adds little new financial info; the incremental signal (continued deceleration in PIF/NPW growth, elevated BI severity, slightly softer margin, and no confirmed repeat of the 2025 mega special dividend) skews cautious. Sell-side has already been trimming targets (KBW, BMO, Wells Fargo) post-release, and with growth comps getting harder into H2 and combined ratio drifting up y/y, out-period estimate revisions likely continue downward after the call, producing a fade rather than follow-through despite the in-hand EPS beat. |
LOW |