PGR Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PGR Report Q2 GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$5.67 vs. cons $4.73 HIGH
PGR Report Q2 companywide combined ratio BEAT pred ~87.3% vs. cons 88.4% HIGH
PGR Report Q2 net premiums earned IN-LINE pred ~$21.57B vs. cons $21.60B HIGH
PGR Guide Companywide net-premium-written growth LOWER guide ~5.5% vs. cons 6.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
PGR Guide Companywide policies-in-force growth LOWER guide ~6.5% vs. cons 7.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
PGR Guide Companywide underwriting margin LOWER guide ~8.5% vs. cons 9.5% (H2 2026) MEDIUM
PGR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% MEDIUM
PGR Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.8% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Lower growth and margin assumptions imply FY2026 EPS revisions of approximately -3% versus roughly 0% before the call; those out-period cuts should outweigh the already-reported Q2 EPS beat and drive modest negative follow-through. MEDIUM