| PGR |
Report |
2Q26 diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.67 vs. cons $4.73 |
HIGH |
| PGR |
Report |
2Q26 companywide combined ratio |
MISS |
pred ~87.3 vs. cons 86.2 |
HIGH |
| PGR |
Report |
June total policies in force |
BEAT |
pred ~40.09M vs. cons 39.50M |
HIGH |
| PGR |
Guide |
Implied 2H26 underwriting margin / combined-ratio outlook |
LOWER |
guide ~10.0% underwriting margin vs. cons 11.0% (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| PGR |
Guide |
Personal-auto net rate-action outlook |
LOWER |
guide ~-1.0% net rate change vs. cons +1.0% (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| PGR |
Guide |
Personal-auto policy-life-expectancy trend |
LOWER |
guide ~-8.0% YoY vs. cons -4.0% YoY (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| PGR |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| PGR |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
The EPS and policy-count beat is already reported, leaving the call to validate a weaker out-period setup: ~10.0% implied 2H underwriting margin versus ~11.0% consensus and ~-1.0% rate action versus +1.0% consensus. Confirmation of softer retention and continued severity/advertising pressure should pull forward EPS and underwriting estimates lower after the call rather than support a relief bounce. |
MEDIUM |