PNW Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PNW Report Q2 EPS BEAT pred ~$1.55 vs. cons $1.49 MEDIUM
PNW Report Q2 Revenue BEAT pred ~$1.43B vs. cons $1.40B LOW
PNW Report Retail sales/load growth (YoY) BEAT pred ~7% vs. cons ~5% MEDIUM
PNW Guide FY2026 EPS guidance (weather-normalized) UNCHANGED guide ~$4.55–$4.75 (mid $4.65) vs. cons $4.65 (FY2026) HIGH
PNW Guide FY2026 retail sales growth guidance UNCHANGED guide ~4–6% vs. cons ~5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
PNW Guide APS rate case outcome (ROE/net increase, FRAM) UNKNOWN APS ask ~$611M net / 10.70% ROE vs. Staff ~$506M / 9.55% ROE (ROO/decision Q4 2026) LOW
PNW Guide Long-term EPS CAGR / 2026 IRP capex signal UNCHANGED guide 5–7% LT EPS CAGR vs. cons ~6% (through 2030); IRP capex upsize deferred to post-rate-case MEDIUM
PNW Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.8% LOW
PNW Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (FADE) A hot-Arizona-summer Q2 beat is largely weather-driven, and since FY guidance is weather-normalized management reaffirms rather than raises, so there are no meaningful upward out-period estimate revisions. The stock already ran to ~$109 in mid-July and has pulled back ~8% into the print on sector (XLU) weakness, and the rate-case ROO overhang (wide APS-vs-Staff ROE gap) caps upside. Initial weather pop fades as estimates hold flat and defensive utility bid rotates elsewhere. LOW