I'll research PNW (Pinnacle West Capital) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, transcripts, news, and price data.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and check for recent news and filings.Let me get recent news, press releases, 8-Ks, and stock price data to understand developments since May (rate case, IRP filing).Let me research the critical rate case status and IRP filing. Let me search news more broadly.Let me check the investor deck for guidance/rate case details and search the web for the latest rate case and IRP developments.I have rich detail. Let me get the latest on the rate case decision timing and IRP via web search.Let me pull details on the Cholla conversion, Q2 estimates, and the rate case status.I now have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.

Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Report: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 (before open); call at 12:00 p.m. ET

Recent price: ~$100.84 (Aug 3) | Consensus Q2 EPS: ~$1.48–$1.49 | Consensus revenue: ~$1.40B

The one-line take

This is PNW's most important seasonal quarter (summer cooling load) but the number itself is not the story — the pending APS rate case and the just-filed 2026 Integrated Resource Plan are the events that matter. Expect the print to be a referendum on Arizona summer weather and load-growth momentum, while the call becomes the venue for the rate-case and IRP debate.

1. What the Street expects

Consensus sits at roughly $1.48 (KeyCorp/Barchart) to $1.49 (Zacks) per diluted share, on revenue of ~$1.40B (+~3% YoY).
Critically, this implies a ~6% YoY EPS decline versus the $1.58 PNW earned in Q2 2025. The drag is structural, not operational — higher interest expense on a larger debt balance, rising depreciation as plant goes into service, share dilution from equity issuance, and a tougher weather comparison — all ahead of the rate relief that is still pending.
Management has consistently reaffirmed full-year 2026 weather-normalized guidance of $4.55–$4.75 (midpoint $4.65), most recently on the Q1 call. Watch whether they hold it; a reaffirmation is the base case given Q1 came in at $0.27 vs. a $(0.04) loss a year earlier and management called Q1 "a strong start."

Why Q2 matters mechanically: PNW earns the bulk of its annual profit in Q2–Q3. Roughly a third-plus of full-year EPS typically lands in this quarter, so a weather-driven beat or miss here disproportionately sets up whether guidance is de-risked or at risk.

2. Weather is the single biggest swing factor

Arizona summer heat drives the quarter. In Q1, PNW already benefited $0.13 from weather as March set records (Phoenix's earliest-ever 100°+ day). The key question for Q2: - How hot was the June quarter, and against what comp? Q2 2025's $1.58 was a strong, weather-aided result, making the year-over-year bar high. - Note the guidance is weather-normalized, so a hot summer can push reported EPS above the range without changing the underlying outlook. Look for the "gross margin effects of weather" slide for the quarter's dollar variance vs. normal.

3. The rate case — the dominant catalyst (Docket E-01345A-25-0105)

This is what long-term holders should focus on. Status and stakes: - The evidentiary hearing began May 18, 2026; an Administrative Law Judge Recommended Opinion & Order (ROO) follows, with a final ACC decision anticipated in Q4 2026 and new rates targeted for the second half of 2026 (timing could slip). - The gap between the parties is wide: - APS rebuttal ask: ~$694M gross / $611M net revenue increase (~14.75% day-1 bill impact), 10.70% ROE, ~52.35% equity layer, and a Formula Rate Adjustment Mechanism (FRAM) with a ±40bps deadband and 6 months of post-test-year plant. - ACC Staff surrebuttal: ~$506M, 9.55% ROE, ±50bps deadband. - Why it's pivotal: The FRAM formula rate is the mechanism management is counting on to structurally reduce regulatory lag and close the ~200bps rate-base-CAGR-to-EPS-growth gap (targeting earning within ~50bps of allowed ROE by 2029). A constructive outcome underpins the 5–7% long-term EPS CAGR; an adverse one pressures it.

On the call, listen for: any read on ROO timing/content, willingness to settle, and whether management still frames 2029 as the year lag narrows meaningfully.

4. The 2026 IRP — filed August 3, one day before earnings

The Integrated Resource Plan was filed August 3 (docket E-99999A-25-0058), making this call the first chance to discuss it. Management has flagged it as a "material update" that will: - Include its latest 10–15 year load-growth view across residential, SMB, and industrial — plus the committed ~4.5 GW of extra-high-load-factor (data center/fab) demand, but not the ~20 GW uncommitted queue (that remains upside). - Lay out resource "buckets" (gas, solar/storage, transmission) that should ultimately inform an upsized capital plan at/after the rate case. This is the mechanism by which the growth story converts into rate base.

5. Load growth & large-load pipeline — the structural bull case

Sales growth guidance: 4–6% for 2026; 5–7% long-term through 2030. Q1 printed a hot 9.4% (7.4% adjusted), led by C&I +14.6% as TSMC and semiconductor-supply-chain customers ramp. Watch whether Q2 sustains that pace and whether management nudges the near-term range.
Customer growth ~2.2%, near the top of the 1.5–2.5% range, reflecting continued in-migration.
Large-load queue: ~20 GW uncommitted vs. 4.5 GW committed. The subscription/bilateral contract model (initial ~1–1.2 GW tranche, tied to Desert Sun generation + transmission) is expected to produce filed agreements with the ACC this year — any signed contract or timeline update is a potential positive surprise, as it would shift capacity from "uncommitted" to "committed" and support incremental capex.

6. Capital, generation & balance sheet

Capex: APS ~$10.35B for 2025–2028, supporting 7–9% rate-base CAGR to ~$15.7B by 2028 — before any rate-case/subscription upside.
Generation news since Q1: APS announced (early July) it will convert two retired Cholla coal units to ~380 MW of natural gas, construction beginning 2028, in-service 2029 — leveraging existing infrastructure. Also progressing: Redhawk expansion (~400 MW gas turbines), Desert Sun, the Palo Verde license renewal (through mid-2060s) and ~$500M incremental Palo Verde investment, plus a large transmission buildout (>$6B cumulative by 2035).
Financing is de-risked: management said all 2026 equity needs are fully priced (~$650M), with ~$850M total priced under forwards to pre-fund future years. Credit ratings and stable outlooks were reaffirmed by all three agencies in April 2026 (APS Baa1/BBB+/BBB+). This lowers the "surprise equity raise" risk that often overhangs high-growth utilities.
Operations: Palo Verde Unit 2's ~36-day refueling outage occurred in Q2 (returning to service); Unit 1's outage is scheduled for Q4.

7. Setup into the print

PNW is up ~14% YTD (from ~$88 to ~$101), meaningfully outpacing the utility sector (XLU ~+3%).
However, the stock peaked near $109 in mid-July and has pulled back ~7% into the report, cooling some of the momentum — arguably lowering the bar for sentiment.
Dividend: ~$3.64 annualized (2025), ~3.7% multi-year CAGR, with a targeted 65–75% payout ratio.

Checklist — what to watch on the call

Guidance: Reaffirm $4.55–$4.75? Any weather-driven upside commentary?
Rate case: ROO timing/content, settlement posture, FRAM/ROE expectations, when lag narrows.
IRP takeaways: load-growth forecast, resource/capex implications, capital-plan upsize signals.
Sales growth: Did Q2 hold the mid-to-high single digits? Any change to the 4–6% / 5–7% ranges.
Large-load contracts: Progress toward filing subscription-model agreements this year.
Balance sheet: Confirmation that equity is pre-funded and ratings intact.

Bottom line: A likely modest YoY EPS decline is already expected and understood — driven by lag, financing costs, and a tough weather comp. The stock's next leg depends far more on rate-case signals and the newly filed IRP than on the Q2 headline. A hot Arizona summer plus incremental de-risking on the regulatory front would be the bullish combination; a punitive ROO or softening load commentary would be the key downside risk.

Note: Consensus figures and post-Q1 developments (Cholla, IRP filing) are drawn from public news/analyst previews; all forward-looking items are subject to the ACC process and management's actual disclosures on August 4.