I'll research PPL to build a well-informed earnings preview. Let me start by gathering recent filings, transcripts, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings materials (2026Q1) and the year-ago quarter (2025Q2) for context.Let me get the year-ago Q2 for comparison, recent news/developments, and the stock price trend.Let me check for key developments since the Q1 call — the PA rate case decision, Kentucky reconsideration, and any JV news.I now have a comprehensive picture. Let me compile the preview.Here is the earnings preview.
Report date: Thursday, August 7, 2026 (2026Q2 earnings call) · Recent price: ~$34.63 (Aug 6)
PPL heads into Q2 as a "boring-is-good" regulated utility story with an increasingly interesting call option attached. The near-term financials should be uneventful — the debate is entirely about (1) whether management holds/tightens 2026 guidance and reaffirms the top-end-of-6–8% long-term growth narrative, and (2) any concrete progress on the Blackstone data-center generation JV and the Pennsylvania/Kentucky large-load pipeline, which is where the upside optionality lives.
Guidance is the anchor. PPL is guiding 2026 ongoing EPS of $1.90–$1.98 (midpoint $1.94), reaffirmed at Q1, and says it's tracking to at least the midpoint. Q1 came in at $0.63 ongoing vs. $0.60 a year ago, a clean start. The key question is whether management nudges toward the top of the range given the July 1 Pennsylvania rate reset (see below).
Q2 is seasonally the weakest quarter — don't over-read the absolute EPS. A year ago, Q2 2025 ongoing EPS was just $0.32 (down from $0.38 in Q2 2024), which management attributed to the timing of operating costs/true-ups, milder weather vs. a hot 2Q24, and higher interest expense. By segment, Q2 2025 ongoing was KY $0.18 / PA $0.19 / RI $0.01 / Corp $(0.06). Expect a YoY improvement this quarter, with the main tailwind being higher Kentucky base rates effective January 1, 2026 plus incremental transmission revenue, partly offset by higher depreciation and interest.
Watch the offsets. Every quarter this year has carried the same headwinds: rising depreciation and interest expense (long-term debt climbed to ~$19B at 3/31 from ~$18B at year-end after the February financing) and higher O&M. Capex is running hot — ~$5.1B planned for 2026 — so financing cost creep is the recurring drag to monitor.
Long-term framework to be reaffirmed: 6–8% annual EPS growth through at least 2029 (near the top end), off a 2025 base of $1.81; 4–6% dividend growth; ~$23B capex through 2029 driving ~10.3% rate-base CAGR — and notably, none of the Blackstone JV or new Kentucky nuclear/pumped-storage projects are in that plan.
1. Blackstone generation JV — the marquee catalyst. On the Q1 call, CEO Vince Sorgi said he'd "be surprised if we weren't announcing something meaningful this year" on energy supply services agreements (ESSAs) with hyperscalers. The JV has been reserving gas turbines, submitting multiple projects into PJM's interconnection queue on land under its control, and negotiating Marcellus gas supply. A signed ESSA — utility-like risk profile via long-term contracts, above-utility returns — would be a genuine re-rating event since it's entirely incremental to the plan. Any timeline update here is the single most important thing on the call.
2. Pennsylvania — rate case reset + data-center pipeline. PPL's first PA base rate case in 10+ years settled with ALJ approval, <4% bill increase across all classes, a 2-year stay-out, and a new large-load customer rate class; new rates took effect July 1, 2026 — so this begins helping in 2H, not Q2. Meanwhile the advanced-stage data-center pipeline reached 28.3 GW (up 12% QoQ), with ~10 GW under signed ESAs and ~5 GW already under construction. Management flagged ~$0.5B of incremental transmission capex upside beyond the current plan. Watch for confirmation of the final PUC order and an updated pipeline figure. Political risk to monitor: the PA governor's affordability push and PJM market-reform/backstop-auction ("RBP") debate — PPL is broadly supportive but wants cost protections so large loads, not existing customers, bear the risk.
3. Kentucky — rate case reconsideration + potential new CPCN. The KPSC reconsideration of the base rate case was expected to resolve in Q3, so a decision could land on or near this call. More importantly, Kentucky's load pipeline jumped to 12.9 GW to 2032, and probability-weighted new load is now ~3.5 GW vs. 1.8 GW in the last CPCN — management said a new CPCN (more gas, batteries, possibly the Rye pumped-storage/X-energy SMR projects) could be filed as early as this year, especially if a hyperscaler commits. This would be incremental capex on top of the ~$4B of generation already approved/under construction.
The stock is a modest laggard into the print: PPL is ~‑1.4% YTD vs. the XLU utilities ETF ~+0.5%, and it's off ~13% from its April peak (~$39.8), drifting lower over the past two weeks into earnings. That leaves expectations reasonable — the setup rewards a guidance reaffirmation/tightening plus any tangible JV or Kentucky-CPCN news, while a "quiet" quarter with no JV progress likely does little for a name whose bull case increasingly rests on that optionality.
Base-case Q2: a seasonally light but YoY-improved quarter, reaffirmed $1.90–$1.98 guidance, and reaffirmed top-end 6–8% long-term growth — a non-event on the P&L. The real signal is forward-looking: progress toward the first Blackstone ESSA, confirmation of the PA rate reset and expanding data-center pipeline, and whether Kentucky's load surge triggers a new CPCN this year. Those items, not Q2 EPS, are what determine whether PPL's growth algorithm moves structurally higher.
Note: This preview is based on company filings, transcripts, and market data through Aug 6, 2026; it is for informational purposes and is not investment advice.