Good, PA PUC approved the settlement with modifications on June 4, 2026. Let me check the details of those modifications, and also check on the Blackstone JV / ESA news for any updates since Q1 call.# PPL Corporation (NYSE: PPL) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview Report Date: August 7, 2026 (call at 11:00 a.m. ET) | Current Price: ~$34.63 (Aug 6 close)
PPL heads into its second-quarter 2026 report having reaffirmed full-year guidance just three months ago and with several long-running regulatory dockets now resolving in its favor. Wall Street models call for ongoing EPS of roughly $0.35, up from $0.32 a year ago, with full-year 2026 consensus around $1.95 — essentially in line with PPL's own $1.90–$1.98 guidance range (midpoint $1.94). Second quarter is historically PPL's seasonally softest, and last year's Q2 was a notable miss ($0.32 actual vs. ~$0.38 expected) on weather timing and cost phasing, so the bar for a "clean" quarter matters less than commentary on the back-half ramp and regulatory milestones.
The stock has drifted lower alongside the broader utility group (XLU) since a February/March peak, falling from near $39 in April to the mid-$34s today — a move that looks largely sector/rate-driven rather than company-specific, since PPL has broadly tracked the XLU utility ETF's trajectory over the same period. Sell-side sentiment remains bullish: analysts are largely "Strong Buy" rated with an average price target near $41, implying meaningful upside from current levels.
PPL reported first-quarter 2026 GAAP earnings of $452 million, or $0.60 per share, compared with first-quarter 2025 reported earnings of $414 million, or $0.56 per share. Adjusting for special items, first-quarter 2026 earnings from ongoing operations were $478 million, or $0.63 per share, compared with $444 million, or $0.60 per share, a year ago. Based on the company's financial performance year to date, PPL reaffirmed its 2026 ongoing earnings forecast range of $1.90 to $1.98 per share with a midpoint of $1.94 per share. Management also reaffirmed its projection of 6% to 8% annual earnings-per-share (EPS) growth through at least 2029, expecting to achieve compound annual growth near the top end of its targeted range through 2029 compared to 2025 actual ongoing earnings of $1.81 per share, with stronger growth beginning in 2027 and continuing through 2029.
By segment in Q1, Kentucky was the standout (+$0.03 YoY on new retail rates), Pennsylvania was flat, and Rhode Island was roughly flat on an ongoing basis (though it absorbed the bulk of special-item charges, including an ISO-New England transmission ROE clawback).
1. Pennsylvania rate case — now resolved, watch the ramp. Since the Q1 call, the PA rate case cleared its final hurdle: the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission approved a settlement resolving the company's distribution rate review, authorizing an increase of $275 million in annual base distribution revenues, with the PUC finding the settlement in the public interest following a comprehensive review with a minor modification related to net metering eligibility. New rates took effect July 1, 2026 — just after the Q2 window closes — so Q2 results won't yet reflect the increase, but management's tone on the timing/magnitude of the Q3 ramp and the two-year rate-case stay-out will be a key data point for 2027 growth visibility. Investors should also listen for any additional color following the PA Governor's letter on affordability/ROE/equity ratios, which management addressed constructively on the Q1 call.
2. Kentucky reconsideration — decision pending. In Kentucky, LG&E and KU were granted reconsideration of decisions made by the Kentucky Public Service Commission regarding its base rate case, with all intervenor requests denied, and PPL continuing to believe its original negotiated settlement was the better outcome. Management had guided to a KPSC decision in Q3 2026 — an update on timing/substance here is a swing factor for the Kentucky segment's run-rate.
3. Rhode Island rate case and hold-harmless credits. The RI base rate case (seeking $181M in year 1, $49M in year 2) had evidentiary hearings scheduled for June/July, with new rates targeted for September 1, 2026. Watch for confirmation of timing and status of the accelerated deferred-tax "hold-harmless" bill-credit proposal, expected to begin flowing to customers in Q1 2027.
4. Data center pipeline and the Blackstone JV — the real long-term story. As of Q1, PPL's Pennsylvania data-center pipeline in advanced stages had grown to 28.3 gigawatts, up 12% from the 25.2 gigawatts discussed on the year-end call, with about 10 gigawatts now having signed electric service agreements and 5 gigawatts already under construction. Kentucky's development pipeline similarly grew to 12.9 gigawatts of potential new load through 2032, an increase of nearly 4 gigawatts from the year-end update, raising the odds of a fresh Kentucky generation filing (CPCN) later this year. On the Blackstone generation joint venture, management struck an increasingly confident tone last quarter — CEO Vince Sorgi said "it's probably likely that we would have something meaningful to announce this year" on signed energy supply agreements. Any update on ESA progress, turbine reservations, or PJM interconnection filings will be closely watched, though the JV remains outside current capex/earnings guidance.
5. Capital plan, financing and balance sheet. PPL's long-term plan calls for approximately $23 billion of capital investment through 2029, resulting in average annual rate base growth of 10.3%, alongside 6% to 8% annual EPS growth through at least 2029, with compound annual growth expected near the top end of that range, and annual dividend growth of 4% to 6%. On financing, PPL executed a $1.15 billion equity units offering in February, providing a clear path to permanent equity, and has now derisked about two-thirds of the total equity needed to support its current capex plan, with the remainder to come via its ATM program. Watch for any updated equity issuance cadence given the incremental data-center-driven capex opportunity (management flagged at least another ~$0.5 billion of upside transmission capex tied to the expanded PA data-center queue).
6. PJM market design / capacity auction reform. With PJM's new market-design proposals and the FERC-reviewed "reliability backstop" (RBP) auction concept in play, expect continued questions on how bring-your-own-generation rules could affect both the regulated Pennsylvania utility and the Blackstone JV's competitive positioning.
| Metric | Q2 2025A | Q2 2026E (consensus) |
|---|---|---|
| Ongoing EPS | $0.32 | ~$0.35 |
| FY EPS (ongoing) | $1.81 (FY25A) | ~$1.94–$1.95 (guide/consensus) |
| FY2027E EPS | — | ~$2.11 |
Analyst sentiment: of 16 covering analysts, the large majority rate PPL "Strong Buy," with an average price target implying meaningful upside from current levels — a sign the Street is looking through near-term utility-sector rate sensitivity toward PPL's above-average rate-base growth and data-center optionality.
This print is unlikely to be a dramatic swing factor on its own — PPL's core regulated earnings engine is largely on autopilot toward its reaffirmed $1.94 midpoint. The more important signals for investors will be qualitative: confirmation that the PA settlement ramps as expected into Q3/Q4, an update on the Kentucky KPSC reconsideration timeline, progress (or a concrete announcement) on Blackstone JV energy supply agreements, and any incremental commentary on capex/equity needs tied to the fast-growing data-center backlog in both Pennsylvania and Kentucky. Given the stock's recent underperformance has tracked the broader utility sector rather than company-specific news, a steady quarter with constructive regulatory/JV updates could help PPL re-rate toward the Street's more bullish targets.