{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Operating EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.48 vs. cons $3.42",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$14.25B vs. cons $14.15B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Group Insurance Benefit Ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~83.5% vs. cons 84.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Effective Tax Rate",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~21-22% vs. cons ~22% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "POJ Cumulative 2026 Pretax AOI Drag",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~-$550M vs. cons ~-$550M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Corporate & Other Segment Loss",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-$720M vs. cons ~-$650M (FY2026, H2-weighted)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Long-term Adjusted Operating ROE Target (Strategic Update)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~16% vs. cons/current 15% (multi-year target)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock has already rallied ~25% into the print pricing in Japan-remediation progress and a strong strategic reveal, so even a modest EPS beat and reiterated 2026 guidance offers limited fresh upside; the implicit 2027 POJ earnings drag (~$400-450M) and lingering alt-income/assumption-update noise give analysts room to trim out-period estimates even after an in-line-to-slight-beat quarter, while any lack of concrete new financial targets in the strategic update risks profit-taking after such a large run-up, pulling the stock back over the following days.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}