| PSKY |
Report |
Total Revenue (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$6.85B vs. cons ~$6.85B |
MEDIUM |
| PSKY |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.98B vs. cons ~$0.95B |
MEDIUM |
| PSKY |
Report |
Paramount+ net subscriber adds (Q2'26) |
MISS |
pred ~-0.5M (flat, hard-bundle exit) vs. cons ~+0.4M |
LOW |
| PSKY |
Guide |
FY2026 Revenue guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$30B vs. cons ~$30B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PSKY |
Guide |
FY2026 Adj. EBITDA guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$3.8B vs. cons ~$3.8B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PSKY |
Guide |
WBD deal close timeline (key commentary) |
LOWER |
guide close ~H1 2027 backstop vs. prior ~Q3 2026 (deal timeline) |
MEDIUM |
| PSKY |
Guide |
DTC/Paramount+ full-year profit trajectory |
BETTER |
guide DTC margin ~10%+ vs. cons ~9% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| PSKY |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| PSKY |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.0% (FADE) |
Print is a sideshow to the WBD deal; an in-line revenue print, slight EBITDA beat on cost discipline, and Newsom-settlement chatter can spark a modest relief bounce off deeply depressed, heavily-shorted ~$8 levels (‑37% YTD). But the out-period math reasserts: ~50/50 deal odds, a pushed timeline (Q3'26→H1'27 backstop), ~$80B pro-forma debt, a pro-forma net loss, and ~3.9B new shares (~4x dilution) at the $12 floor with the stock at ~$8. Standalone estimates drift down as the telegraphed soft-optics Q2 (theatrical comp, hard-bundle sub exit) and dilution overhang dominate, so any bounce fades into continued negative momentum. |
LOW |