Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ: PSKY) — 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Timing note: PSKY reports today, Tuesday, August 4, 2026, not tomorrow. Earnings materials are due after the U.S. market close, followed by a 5:00 p.m. ET conference call.

Investment view: this is less a “beat-or-miss” quarter than a credibility test

PSKY enters 2Q26 with a straightforward near-term operating setup—streaming growth and cost discipline offsetting linear-TV erosion—but an unusually complex corporate backdrop. The report must demonstrate that the standalone business can deliver its $30 billion revenue / $3.8 billion adjusted EBITDA full-year framework while management navigates the proposed Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, its financing needs, regulatory hurdles, and eventual dilution.

The setup appears cautious: PSKY closed at $8.24 on August 3, down roughly 19% from July 1. That weakness likely reflects merger and capital-structure uncertainty more than a single-quarter operating concern.

What management has guided for 2Q26

Metric 2Q26 company outlook 2Q25 comparable Midpoint implication
Revenue $6.75B–$6.95B $6.85B ~$6.85B; roughly flat YoY
Adjusted EBITDA $0.90B–$1.00B $0.863B ~$0.95B; +10% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA margin Not explicitly guided 12.6% ~13.9% at midpoint
Full-year revenue $30.0B +4% YoY
Full-year adjusted EBITDA $3.8B 12.7% margin

The most important read-through is that management expects profitability to be weighted toward the first half, even though revenue is expected to skew to the second half. A result within the numerical range may therefore not be enough; investors will want reaffirmation of the full-year targets and a clear explanation of the expected second-half revenue acceleration.

The operating scorecard

1. Direct-to-consumer: growth, monetization, and the quality of subscriber additions

DTC is the core operating upside. In 1Q, segment revenue grew 11% to $2.4 billion, Paramount+ revenue rose 17%, and DTC adjusted EBITDA improved to $251 million from a $4 million loss a year earlier.

For 2Q, the central question is whether the improvement is durable rather than principally accounting- or cost-driven:

What would be bullish: healthy underlying Paramount+ adds, sustained ARPU growth, DTC margin expansion, and tangible early benefits from the unified technology and Pluto initiatives.

What would be bearish: a worse-than-anticipated subscriber decline, elevated churn after pricing, weaker advertising, or indications that streaming profitability depended disproportionately on non-recurring content accounting.

2. TV Media: can expense control continue to outrun structural declines?

TV Media remains the primary drag on revenue but the largest current profit generator. In 1Q, revenue fell 6% to $3.7 billion, as both advertising and affiliate revenue declined 6%, but adjusted EBITDA increased 11% to $1.1 billion due to cost control.

The 2Q comparison is notably difficult:

The question is whether PSKY can preserve margins in the face of weaker revenue without underinvesting in content, sports, and the advertising-sales rebuild.

What would be bullish: linear advertising declines that are contained, a credible political-ad contribution outlook for the second half, and stable-to-higher TV Media margins.

What would be bearish: a broad ad slowdown beyond the sports-event comparison, accelerating affiliate erosion, or cost savings that begin to impair programming or revenue generation.

3. Studios: licensing should matter more than the theatrical headline

Studios revenue grew 11% in 1Q, helped by Scream 7 and licensing, while adjusted EBITDA was $164 million, versus $82 million a year earlier. But management explicitly warned that 2Q faces a difficult theatrical comparison against 2Q25’s Mission: Impossible—The Final Reckoning.

PSKY’s 2Q thesis is therefore more dependent on:

Relative to 2Q25, Studios adjusted EBITDA faces an easy comparison—the prior-year recast segment posted a $31 million loss—but theatrical revenue is likely to be soft. A positive margin outcome driven by licensing would support the strategy; a material miss would undermine confidence in the transition from a hit-driven film business to a more diversified studio platform.

The dominant non-operating issue: Warner Bros. Discovery

The WBD transaction will likely drive the stock reaction at least as much as quarterly results.

Why the deal is strategically important

The transaction would combine Paramount’s broadcast, studio, streaming, and sports assets with WBD’s film, television, streaming, and global content portfolio. Management’s strategic premise is scale: broader IP, content libraries, distribution, advertising inventory, and streaming reach.

PSKY has made progress on selected approvals. The European Commission approved the merger under EU merger rules on July 22, and PSKY previously disclosed approvals under the EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation and from South Korea. However, the transaction remains subject to other closing conditions and regulatory clearances.

Why investors remain cautious

The financing and dilution are substantial:

Those figures are illustrative rather than forecasts, but they explain why the market is focused on financing cost, dilution, regulatory timing, and the path to deleveraging rather than simply revenue growth.

Questions management needs to answer

  1. Has the expected timing changed? Management previously targeted a closing by the end of 3Q26, but regulatory and litigation developments have increased uncertainty.
  2. What is the current status of U.S. and state-level challenges?
  3. Has the financing mix, expected interest cost, or PIPE pricing framework changed?
  4. What is the standalone plan if closing is delayed?
  5. What quantified synergy, integration-cost, and deleveraging targets can investors underwrite?

Guidance and cash flow are likely more important than EPS

GAAP EPS will be especially noisy because of transaction costs, interest expense, post-transaction accounting, stock compensation, restructuring, and the changed share count. Management itself has shifted emphasis toward adjusted EBITDA.

For 2Q, investors should focus on:

PSKY expects approximately $800 million of transformation costs in 2026 and only about 5% free-cash-flow conversion before those costs. That makes liquidity, debt, and cash-burn commentary important. At March 31, PSKY had $1.9 billion of cash and $15.5 billion of gross debt, before any incremental debt associated with a WBD close.

Key catalysts and risks

Potential upside catalysts

Principal downside risks

Bottom line

The operational bar for PSKY’s 2Q report is manageable: approximately flat revenue and double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoint, with DTC expansion offsetting linear-TV pressure. The more consequential issue is whether management can turn that operational stability into a credible foundation for a highly levered, heavily diluted WBD transaction.

A constructive report would pair delivery on EBITDA with clean DTC KPIs, maintained full-year guidance, and materially improved certainty around the deal’s timing, financing, and deleveraging path. Conversely, even a modest operating shortfall could be amplified by the market’s existing skepticism toward the merger structure.

Sources reviewed: Paramount Skydance 1Q26 shareholder letter and earnings release; July 21 earnings-date announcement; July 22 and July 31, 2026 SEC filings regarding WBD regulatory progress and pro forma financials; PSKY share-price data through August 3, 2026.