| PSX |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$9.10 vs. cons $7.68 |
HIGH |
| PSX |
Report |
Refining Worldwide Market Capture Rate |
BEAT |
pred ~115% vs. cons/guide ~95% |
MEDIUM |
| PSX |
Report |
Refining Margin per Barrel ($/bbl) |
BEAT |
pred ~$19.50/bbl vs. cons ~$15.00/bbl |
MEDIUM |
| PSX |
Guide |
H2/Q3 Refining Margin & Crack Spread Tone |
LOWER |
guide ~tone implying $12-14/bbl margins as Hormuz de-escalates vs. cons ~$16/bbl (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PSX |
Guide |
Debt Paydown Path |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$19B debt by YE2026 reaffirmed vs. prior guide $19B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PSX |
Guide |
CPChem O&P Utilization |
BETTER |
guide ~high-80s utilization as ME JV normalizes vs. prior guide low-80s (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| PSX |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| PSX |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.5% (FADE) |
Q2 beat is already de-risked by VLO/MPC read-throughs and largely priced into PSX's 58% YTD run and rich EV/EBITDA multiple; the real swing factor is forward tone, and with Iran/Oman Strait of Hormuz reopening talks accelerating right into the print, any cautious commentary on H2 crack spread durability should trigger cuts to out-period (Q3/Q4 2026, 2027) margin and EPS estimates even after a backward-looking beat, echoing VLO's partial post-print fade (peak +3.8% faded to ~+2% within days) despite its own blowout quarter. |
MEDIUM |