| PSX |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$8.25 vs. cons $7.60 |
MEDIUM |
| PSX |
Report |
Realized refining margin per barrel |
BEAT |
pred ~$25.20/bbl vs. cons $23.50/bbl |
MEDIUM |
| PSX |
Report |
Cash flow from operations |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.2B vs. cons $5.4B |
MEDIUM |
| PSX |
Guide |
Worldwide crude utilization |
BETTER |
guide ~95% vs. cons 94% (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| PSX |
Guide |
Refining market capture |
LOWER |
guide ~96% vs. cons 98% (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| PSX |
Guide |
Refining turnaround expense |
LOWER |
guide ~$110M vs. cons $125M (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| PSX |
Guide |
Chemicals global O&P utilization |
LOWER |
guide ~87% vs. cons 89% (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| PSX |
Guide |
Total debt target |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$19.0B vs. cons $19.0B (year-end 2026) |
HIGH |
| PSX |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| PSX |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.7% (FADE) |
The Q2 beat and working-capital-driven deleveraging should support the initial reaction, but Q3 capture of ~96% versus consensus 98% and Chemicals utilization of ~87% versus consensus 89% imply modest out-period estimate cuts as backwardation persists and potential Hormuz normalization pressures forward refining margins. |
MEDIUM |