PSX Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PSX Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.52 vs. cons $3.33 MEDIUM
PSX Report Refining adjusted pre-tax income BEAT pred ~$1.18bn vs. cons $1.05bn MEDIUM
PSX Report Cash flow from operations, excluding working capital BEAT pred ~$2.05bn vs. cons $1.82bn MEDIUM
PSX Guide Worldwide refining market capture LOWER guide ~94% vs. cons 97% (3Q26) MEDIUM
PSX Guide Worldwide crude utilization UNCHANGED guide ~94% vs. cons 94% (3Q26) MEDIUM
PSX Guide Year-end total debt target UNCHANGED guide ~$19.0bn vs. cons $19.0bn (FY26) MEDIUM
PSX Guide Corporate and Other costs LOWER guide ~$455m vs. cons $440m (3Q26) LOW
PSX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.8% MEDIUM
PSX Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FADE) A reported beat of ~$0.19 per share versus consensus is likely offset by a ~3-point lower 3Q refining-capture framework (94% versus 97%) and higher Corporate costs (~$455m versus ~$440m). The unchanged ~$19.0bn FY26 debt target limits a balance-sheet upside revision, so out-period EPS and free-cash-flow estimates should drift lower after the initially strong 2Q print. MEDIUM