Q Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
Q Report Total net sales (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.40B vs. cons ~$1.38B MEDIUM
Q Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.12 vs. cons ~$1.06 MEDIUM
Q Report Adj. Operating EBITDA (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$445M vs. cons ~$432M MEDIUM
Q Guide FY26 Net sales guide (raise) BETTER guide ~$5.35-5.45B (mid ~$5.40B) vs. cons ~$5.34B (FY26) MEDIUM
Q Guide FY26 Adj. EPS guide (raise) BETTER guide ~$4.00-4.25 (mid ~$4.12) vs. cons ~$4.02 (FY26) MEDIUM
Q Guide FY26 Adj. Operating EBITDA guide (raise) BETTER guide ~$1.58-1.66B (mid ~$1.62B) vs. cons ~$1.60B (FY26) MEDIUM
Q Guide MSI wafer-start growth assumption BETTER guide ~high-single-digit (~7-8%) vs. prior mid-to-high-single-digit ~6% (FY26) LOW
Q Guide ICS advanced pkg/thermal/AI-PCB growth UNKNOWN pred ~+45% YoY vs. cons ~+40% YoY (Q2'26 core areas) LOW
Q Guide Permanent CFO / Head of Semi hire UNKNOWN pred 0 of 2 filled vs. cons 0 of 2 filled (as of Q2 call) LOW
Q Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +4.0% MEDIUM
Q Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.0% (FADE) Stock is washed out into the print (~-24% from the June $176 peak, down again through July on AI-durability jitters à la Corning -46%), so a beat + second FY raise should spark a relief pop of ~+4% day 1. But the raise is modest (FY sales/EBITDA midpoints up only low-single-digit) and the out-period math is soft: Semi guided ~flat with a one-time Q1 restock not repeating, heavy 2H FCF/capex loading, and a prudent ~$20M inflation guardrail. So implied per-quarter 2H run-rate revisions are limited even after the beat, and with sector 'durability of AI capex' nerves capping the multiple, the initial pop partially retraces — follow-through fades to ~+2% cumulative residual by day 5. LOW