RL Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
RL Report Revenue growth (FX-neutral) BEAT pred ~10% vs. cons 8% MEDIUM
RL Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$4.55 vs. cons $4.29 MEDIUM
RL Report Adjusted operating margin BEAT pred ~18.7% vs. cons 18.3% LOW
RL Guide FY27 revenue growth (cc, full year) BETTER guide raised to ~6-7% vs. cons ~5% (FY27) MEDIUM
RL Guide FY27 operating margin expansion (full year) UNCHANGED guide +40-60 bps vs. cons ~+50 bps (FY27) MEDIUM
RL Guide AUR growth (Q1, high-single-digit) BETTER pred ~9% vs. cons ~8% (FQ1 FY27) LOW
RL Guide Tariff/IEEPA refund optionality (2H commentary) UNKNOWN guide excludes refunds (upside ~unquantified) vs. cons $0 assumed (2H FY27) LOW
RL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% MEDIUM
RL Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Classic 'clean beat, priced-for-perfection' RL setup (year-ago FQ1 fell ~6.5% on a beat-and-raise). Even with an FX-neutral revenue/EPS beat and a modest FY raise, the out-period math is unfavorable: FY27 margin expansion is front-half weighted with a tariff step-up assumed in 2H and stiffening Asia/China (+40%) and AUR (+14%) compares, so 2H estimates get trimmed even after a Q1 beat. That, plus a rich valuation only ~8% off highs, pulls the initial negative reaction further over the week as sell-side normalizes out-quarter numbers. MEDIUM