RL Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
RL Report Q1 FY27 Revenue BEAT pred ~$1.90B vs. cons $1.86B MEDIUM
RL Report Q1 FY27 Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$4.45 vs. cons $4.26 MEDIUM
RL Report Q1 FY27 Adjusted Operating Margin BEAT pred ~18.7% vs. cons 18.3% MEDIUM
RL Guide FY2027 Constant-Currency Revenue Growth Guide BETTER guide ~5.5-6.0% CC vs. cons ~5.5% CC (FY2027, initial guide was 4-5% CC) MEDIUM
RL Guide FY2027 Operating Margin Expansion Guide (bps CC) BETTER guide ~60-80bps CC vs. cons ~55bps CC (FY2027, initial guide was 40-60bps) MEDIUM
RL Guide Q2 FY2027 Revenue Growth Guide (CC) UNCHANGED guide ~mid-to-high single digit (~6.5%) vs. cons ~7.0% (Q2 FY2027) MEDIUM
RL Guide H2 FY2027 Tariff Rate Assumption / Gross Margin Headwind UNCHANGED guide reiterates ~10% current tariff rate stepping up vs. cons modeling ~12% average H2 rate (H2 FY2027) LOW
RL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.0% MEDIUM
RL Return 5-day cumulative residual +4.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) RL's Q1 guide (mid-to-high single digit CC revenue, +80-120bps op margin) is conservative relative to its own multi-quarter beat streak, and Q1 is the seasonally favorable half (lower 10% tariff rate, AUR still running above the 'normalized' mid-single-digit FY guide). A clean top/bottom-line beat should prompt sell-side to nudge FY27 revenue/margin algo modestly higher (from 4-5%/40-60bps toward 5.5-6%/60-80bps), supporting continued buying over the week. Risk to fade: any explicit confirmation of H2 tariff step-up above 10% or incremental Europe softness (Middle East/tourism) could cap the move or reverse gains late in the window, as happened in Aug-2025's Q1 print where a beat-and-raise still saw a sharp day-1 drop before partially recovering — hence only LOW-MEDIUM conviction on full follow-through. LOW