Report Date: Thursday, August 6, 2026 (after market close) | Call: 4:30 PM ET
ResMed reports fiscal Q4 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) tomorrow. The stock has had a volatile year — it traded as high as ~$294 last August, fell as low as ~$180 in late May/June, and has since rebounded to ~$224, up sharply over the past week heading into the print. Despite four consecutive quarters of EPS beats, RMD is still down meaningfully off its highs, largely on persistent investor anxiety about GLP-1 weight-loss drugs eroding the long-term sleep-apnea treatment population, along with multiple compression in the broader med-tech/healthcare group.
Consensus expectations for Q4 FY26: - Revenue: ~$1.46 billion, roughly 8–9% year-over-year growth - Non-GAAP EPS: ~$2.89–$2.90, up ~13–14% year-over-year - Full-year FY26 non-GAAP EPS consensus: ~$11.11–$11.13 (+~16% y/y)
ResMed has topped Wall Street's bottom-line estimate in each of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise around 3%.
Q3 (March quarter) set a high bar. ResMed delivered 11% growth in headline revenue or 8% growth on a constant currency basis to $1.43 billion, with operating leverage leading to margin expansion, both year-on-year as well as sequentially, resulting in 21% growth in non-GAAP earnings per share. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 62.8%, up 290 bps year-over-year and 50 bps sequentially, and non-GAAP operating margin reached 36.7%. Free cash flow was $520 million (per management's remarks), representing another quarter of above-100% FCF conversion, and the company returned $262 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
By segment: Americas devices grew 6%, Americas masks/other grew 14% (helped by the VirtuOx acquisition), Europe/Asia/RoW devices grew 6% constant currency and masks/other grew 10% cc, and Residential Care Software (RCS) grew 4% cc — underpinned by robust performance from our MEDIFOX DAN software vertical, partially offset by ongoing challenges in our senior living and long-term care vertical.
1. GLP-1 narrative — is the bear case cracking? This remains the single biggest overhang on the stock. Management has been building an increasingly detailed real-world evidence case that GLP-1s are a tailwind, not a threat. On the Q3 call, CEO Mick Farrell disclosed that in a cohort of 1.7 million de-identified patient records, PAP patients who subsequently start GLP-1 therapy show higher PAP adherence rates than patients on PAP alone. Specifically, the 2-year resupply rates are 5.1% higher and the 3-year resupply rates are 6.2% higher. Separately, in a larger 2.1-million-patient claims cohort, ResMed found patients with scripts for both PAP and GLP-1 are approximately 11% more likely to start on PAP therapy than patients who have a script for PAP alone. Expect an updated dataset tomorrow, plus commentary on how pharma's own consumer marketing (e.g., Eli Lilly's OSA awareness campaigns) is feeding ResMed's diagnostic funnel via VirtuOx home sleep testing.
2. Fabric mask rollout and mix/pricing dynamics The AirTouch N30i and newer F30i Comfort/Clear fabric masks continue to be called out as a share-gain driver, with management citing real-world data showing the AirTouch N30i drives 6% higher 90-day compliance than its silicone equivalent. Watch for continued strength in masks/accessories growth (was +12% cc globally last quarter) and further color on the debate — raised directly by an analyst last quarter — over whether HME/DME providers can profitably dispense premium-priced fabric masks under current reimbursement, given the price point is such that a traditional HME can't make any profit on either setup or resupply in some payer/state combinations.
3. First full quarter with Noctrix Health ResMed closed its ~$340 million acquisition of Noctrix Health (Restless Legs Syndrome device maker, "Nidra") around June 1, 2026, with an annual revenue run-rate of roughly $24 million at close and guided dilution of about $0.02 to Q4 EPS. This is the first quarter reflecting a full period of ownership — look for integration updates, cross-sell commentary through the HME/DME channel, and reimbursement traction, since management called Noctrix's growth rate and gross margin both higher than ResMed's core business.
4. FY2027 initial guidance — likely the biggest swing factor Since this is ResMed's fiscal year-end report, expect the company to lay out initial FY2027 targets. Management has repeatedly reiterated its "Global 2030" algorithm of high single-digit revenue growth with earnings growth outpacing revenue, plus a commitment to further gross margin accretion of double-digit basis points annually through 2030, even amid geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and impacting fuel rates and emerging component cost pressures. Watch specifically for updated FY27 gross margin, SG&A/R&D-as-% of revenue, and tax-rate ranges (FY26 guidance was gross margin 62-63%, SG&A 19-20%, R&D 6-7%, tax rate 21-23%).
5. New CFO's first call Aaron Bloomer (formerly CFO of Exact Sciences, with prior roles at 3M and Baxter) has now succeeded long-time CFO Brett Sandercock, whose retirement was announced last quarter after 55 quarters as part of the CEO/CFO leadership team. This is effectively Bloomer's introductory call to the investment community — any shift in capital-allocation tone, cost-discipline framing, or M&A appetite commentary will be closely parsed.
6. Residential Care Software turnaround progress Management guided that it expects to accelerate RCS revenue back to sustainable high single-digit growth with double-digit operating profit growth in fiscal year 2027, following portfolio-pruning work in the lower-growth senior living/long-term care vertical. Progress here (or lack thereof) will matter for the multi-year growth algorithm.
7. Competitive and channel dynamics Management dismissed concerns around new device competitor launches and Philips' potential re-entry into the CPAP market, framing new entrants as manageable and pointing to continued U.S. device share gains. Separately, on payer-side utilization-management experiments (e.g., "Synapse"-style programs some DMEs have flagged), Farrell downplayed the threat, arguing CPAP's low cost/high efficacy profile positions it well versus higher-acuity care alternatives. Any incremental data points on U.S. device growth (last quarter's 6% was called "the high end" of ResMed's mid-single-digit framework) will be watched closely.
ResMed entered the quarter with a strong net cash position (~$996 million net cash at March 31) and has been accelerating buybacks — $175 million repurchased in Q3 with a plan to repurchase at least that amount again in Q4, alongside a $0.60/share quarterly dividend. Expect continued emphasis on capital return alongside R&D investment and tuck-in M&A (Noctrix being the latest example).
Despite the consistent beat-and-raise pattern, RMD trades well below its 52-week high, with a forward P/E in the high-teens/low-20s — below its historical average — and an average Wall Street price target in the $248–$261 range, implying meaningful upside from the current ~$224 share price if the multiple normalizes. Sentiment remains split: roughly half of covering analysts rate the stock Buy/Outperform versus Hold, reflecting the unresolved market debate over long-term GLP-1 impact on the sleep-apnea treatment population versus management's increasingly data-backed rebuttal.
Heading into Thursday's print, the operational story remains intact — double-digit revenue growth, expanding gross margins, strong free cash flow, and disciplined capital return — but the stock's valuation continues to reflect skepticism about the durability of that growth in a GLP-1 world. The keys to watch are: (1) whether device/mask growth rates hold or accelerate, (2) any fresh GLP-1 real-world data, (3) initial FY2027 guidance framing, (4) early commentary from new CFO Aaron Bloomer, and (5) Noctrix integration progress. A clean beat-and-raise with confident FY27 guidance could help close the gap between fundamentals and share price; any wobble in device growth or gross margin trajectory would likely reinforce bears' concerns.