ResMed (NYSE: RMD) — FY2026 Q4 Earnings Preview

Timing note: ResMed’s fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call is scheduled for today, Thursday, August 6, 2026—not tomorrow. The company confirmed this date in its July 7 filing.

Executive view

ResMed enters the quarter with a strong operating backdrop: sleep-and-breathing revenue has been growing at a high-single-digit constant-currency rate, masks and accessories remain the standout category, gross margin has expanded sharply, and free-cash-flow generation supports both investment and aggressive shareholder returns.

The central issue for investors is unlikely to be the June-quarter print alone. Instead, the stock reaction should hinge on the shape of FY2027 guidance and management’s framing of three moving pieces:

  1. Core PAP device and mask growth, particularly U.S. device demand and whether GLP-1-driven sleep-apnea awareness is becoming more visible in prescriptions and setups.
  2. Margin durability, after substantial component-cost, logistics, and manufacturing benefits.
  3. Portfolio reshaping: the sale of MatrixCare and the addition of Noctrix. These moves improve strategic focus but create a reported revenue/profit headwind and near-term EPS dilution in FY2027.

RMD closed at $224.07 on August 5, up roughly 11.4% since July 1 and 16.8% from its July 23 low, suggesting investor expectations have improved into the print.


What matters most this quarter

1. The core growth engine: devices, masks, and resupply

In fiscal Q3, ResMed delivered 8% constant-currency revenue growth:

FY2026 Q3 actual YoY constant-currency growth
Total revenue 8%
Global devices 6%
Global masks & other 12%
U.S./Canada/Latin America sleep-and-breathing revenue 9% reported
Europe/Asia/other sleep-and-breathing revenue 7%
Residential Care Software 4%

The most encouraging feature was the mix: masks and other grew twice as fast as devices on a constant-currency basis. This category benefits from both new patient setups and recurring resupply, and it carries attractive economics.

For Q4, investors should focus on:

2. GLP-1s are a demand-generation opportunity—not yet a discrete revenue line

Management’s core argument is that GLP-1 therapies should expand, rather than shrink, the PAP opportunity: weight loss may improve sleep apnea for some patients, but many still require PAP treatment due to age, anatomy, and other factors. ResMed has cited internal real-world analyses suggesting patients using both PAP and GLP-1 therapy are more likely to initiate and remain on PAP therapy.

The important distinction for this earnings call: GLP-1s are a multi-year funnel tailwind, not necessarily a near-term quarterly step-change. Investors should listen for tangible leading indicators:

A more confident management tone around these indicators would support the longer-term growth narrative, even if quarterly device growth remains in the mid-single digits.


Margin: the near-term financial swing factor

ResMed’s margin execution has been exceptional. In Q3, non-GAAP gross margin reached 62.8%, up 290 basis points year over year and 50 basis points sequentially. Management attributed the improvement to component-cost reductions, manufacturing and logistics efficiencies, favorable mix, and currency.

For FY2026, the company reiterated:

FY2026 operating framework Guidance
Non-GAAP gross margin 62%–63%
SG&A as % of revenue 19%–20%
R&D as % of revenue 6%–7%
Effective tax rate 21%–23%

The Q4 question is therefore less about whether ResMed can meet its FY2026 framework—it reiterated that framework in July—and more about the FY2027 slope.

What could pressure margins?

What could offset those pressures?

Management has said it still targets gross-margin accretion over time, despite emerging component and fuel-cost pressures. That confidence will be tested in FY2027 guidance.


Portfolio changes make FY2027 guidance unusually important

MatrixCare sale: strategically cleaner, mechanically dilutive to reported growth

On July 7, ResMed agreed to sell its MatrixCare business to Frazier Healthcare Partners for $490 million in cash, subject to customary adjustments and closing conditions. Management said MatrixCare represented approximately:

The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. ResMed plans to use net proceeds for capital returns—including an accelerated share repurchase program—and general corporate purposes.

The strategic rationale is sensible: MatrixCare was a lower-growth portion of Residential Care Software, while ResMed wants to invest behind higher-growth care-at-home, sleep, and respiratory opportunities. But investors will need clear answers on:

Management has said transition-services agreements should largely offset stranded costs in the first year after close, but the durability of that statement will be a key call topic.

Noctrix: strategically attractive but near-term dilutive

ResMed acquired Noctrix, developer of the Nidra therapy for restless legs syndrome, in June. The asset broadens ResMed’s reach in sleep health and uses familiar sleep-physician and HME/DME distribution channels.

However, it is not immediately accretive:

Investors should view Noctrix as a strategic growth investment rather than a near-term earnings driver. The relevant question is whether management can articulate a credible reimbursement, distribution, and adoption path that justifies accelerating investment.


Earnings framework: a useful, non-consensus baseline

ResMed reported $1.348 billion of revenue in Q4 FY2025, with 9% constant-currency growth. Holding that prior-year growth rate roughly steady would imply a Q4 FY2026 revenue outcome in the neighborhood of $1.46 billion to $1.47 billion before considering the actual currency translation and acquisition-related impacts. This is an illustrative growth framework—not a sell-side consensus estimate.

For context, last year’s Q4 delivered:

FY2025 Q4 actual Result
Revenue $1.348B
Constant-currency revenue growth 9%
Non-GAAP gross margin 61.4%
Non-GAAP EPS $2.55
Operating cash flow $539M

The potential setup for FY2026 Q4 is favorable because the year-ago margin base is lower and ResMed has already demonstrated meaningful margin improvement through the first nine months of FY2026. Offsetting that benefit are Noctrix dilution, higher investment levels, a higher tax rate than the prior year, and potentially less favorable component-cost tailwinds.


Bull, base, and bear framing

Bull case

Base case

Bear case


Questions investors should want answered

  1. How did U.S. device growth trend in Q4 relative to Q3’s 6% growth?
  2. Are mask and accessory sales still growing at a double-digit rate, excluding the VirtuOx contribution?
  3. What evidence is ResMed seeing that GLP-1 awareness is increasing sleep testing, PAP prescriptions, setups, and resupply?
  4. What is the FY2027 gross-margin outlook after FY2026’s major expansion?
  5. What are the organic growth and operating-profit outlooks for the post-MatrixCare Residential Care Software portfolio?
  6. How much capital will be devoted to the ASR, and when will it be executed?
  7. What is the expected FY2027 EPS bridge for MatrixCare’s sale, Noctrix dilution, incremental buybacks, and any stranded costs?
  8. What does management expect from Noctrix in reimbursement coverage, commercial investment, and revenue growth over the next 12–24 months?

Bottom line

ResMed’s Q4 report should confirm another year of strong execution: high-single-digit underlying growth, mask-led mix improvement, substantial gross-margin expansion, robust cash generation, and enhanced buybacks. The stock’s near-term direction, however, is likely to be driven by whether FY2027 guidance preserves that narrative after normalizing for MatrixCare’s divestiture and Noctrix’s investment phase.

The cleanest positive outcome would be: stable core growth, continued margin accretion, credible post-MatrixCare RCS growth, and an ASR large enough to demonstrate that portfolio simplification will be economically beneficial to shareholders.


Primary sources reviewed