I'll research RSG (Republic Services) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, transcripts, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and the year-ago quarter for context.I have Q1 2026 detail. Now let me get the full-year 2026 guidance (given on the Q4 2025 call) and recent stock price action plus news.Let me check recent sector/peer news to understand the setup into the print (RSG fell alongside WM on 7/30).Let me quickly read WM's Q2 print for the sector read-through, since RSG traded down after it.I have what I need. Let me pull the key numbers together and write the preview.Here is the earnings preview.
Report date: After market close, Wednesday, August 6, 2026 (2026Q2 Earnings Call) Last close (8/5/26): $207.06 · YTD: roughly flat (–1.5%) · ~11% below the early-March high of ~$232
RSG reports into a jittery tape. The stock has given back ~5% in the week since peer Waste Management printed Q2 on July 28 and trimmed its full-year revenue outlook on softer volumes, dragging the whole group lower (RSG fell ~3.5% the day after WM reported). The debate tomorrow is simple: can RSG's price-led algorithm and cost/AI self-help continue to more-than-offset a still-negative volume environment — and does management have enough confidence to hold (or nudge) full-year guidance despite tougher landfill comps and a mid-year macro that remains "stable but soft"?
| Metric | FY2026 Guidance | Midpoint growth |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.05–17.15B | +3.1% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $5.475–5.525B | +3.6% |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | ~32.2% | +20 bps |
| Adjusted EPS | $7.20–7.28 | +3.1% |
| Adjusted FCF | $2.52–2.56B | +4.4% |
| Avg yield (related) | 4.0–4.5% | — |
| Organic volume (total) | ~ –1% | — |
| M&A investment | ~$1B+ | — |
Two nuances management stressed in February that matter for tomorrow: - The comps get harder in Q2/Q3. 2025 benefited from wildfire and hurricane cleanup landfill volumes, which create a ~60 bp organic-volume headwind for 2026 and pull margin lower in the middle of the year. Management explicitly guided Q2 margin flat-to-slightly-down YoY, with the bulk of the year's margin expansion landing in Q4. Don't panic if reported Q2 margin isn't up — the "underlying" (ex-project, ex-fuel, ex-commodity, ex-M&A) figure is the tell. - Ex the nonrecurring 2025 projects, the guide implies ~4% top line, >5% EBITDA growth, ~50 bps of underlying margin expansion, ~6% EPS growth — i.e., the long-term algorithm is intact underneath the optics.
Implied math: with Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.70 booked, $5.54 of EPS remains across Q2–Q4; Q2 is seasonally one of the two strongest quarters, so Street will be looking for something in the ~$2.00 area (my estimate from the guide cadence, not a published consensus).
Q1 2026 was a clean beat-and-hold: - Revenue $4,113M, +2.6%; Adjusted EBITDA $1.32B, margin 32.1% (+50 bps); Adjusted EPS $1.70, +7.6%; Adjusted FCF $984M, +35%. - Pricing stayed strong: core price 5.7% total / 6.8% related (open market 8.4%, restricted 4.4%); average yield 3.4% total / 4.1% related. - Volume was still negative (–0.8% total / –1.0% related) but improving sequentially, with the temporary large-container line growing YoY for the first time in over two years — a potential early construction-cycle green shoot. - Underlying margin expanded ~90 bps; net fuel (–20 bp), commodities (–20 bp) and M&A (–20 bp) were offsets, aided by a one-time favorable legal settlement (+20 bp).
1. Volume trajectory & the "green shoots." Management said Q2 volume would be negative (tougher landfill comp) before flipping positive in Q4. The key read is whether special waste/MSW momentum and the temporary-container recovery are building. Note the peer read-through: WM reported C&D-and-disposal volume –1.8% (–0.4% ex-wildfire) but said residential losses are slowing, improving 210 bps sequentially. Watch RSG's residential line — Q1 was –5.2% on known contract losses that roll off into 2027.
2. Fuel becomes a tailwind. The March diesel spike cost ~$8M of EBITDA in Q1 because RSG's fuel-recovery fee lags ~1 month. Management said the fee catches up beginning in Q2, so watch for fuel to swing from headwind toward neutral/positive.
3. Recycled commodity prices — a quiet upside lever. Guidance was baselined at $115/ton; prices were ~$125/ton as of the Q1 call vs. $120 realized in Q1. Every dollar helps offset the YoY drag (Q1 was $120 vs $155 a year ago). Any commentary on plastics/PET spreads and the polymer-center/Blue Polymers JV economics is worth parsing.
4. Environmental Solutions inflection. ES revenue was –1.3% in Q1 and margin dipped to 19.2%, weighed by a non-repeating 2025 emergency-response job. Management has repeatedly guided ES back to YoY growth in H2 2026 as a longer-cycle sales pipeline converts. Confirmation (or slippage) of that inflection is a key swing factor for the second half.
5. Guidance action & capital allocation. Given WM lowered its revenue guide but held EBITDA/FCF on cost flex, the market will scrutinize whether RSG reaffirms, trims the top line, or leans on price/cost to protect EBITDA and EPS. Supporting the shareholder-return story: RSG just raised the quarterly dividend to $0.67/share (from $0.625, +4.5 cents) on July 29, and in Q1 deployed $433M on M&A (>$700M YTD, on pace to exceed $1B) plus $507M returned to holders ($314M buybacks). Leverage sits at ~2.6x.
RSG enters the print with a resilient, price-driven model and a de-risked full-year framework — but also with (a) a knowingly tough Q2 landfill/margin comp, (b) a sector that just flashed a soft-volume warning via WM, and (c) a stock that has already corrected ~11% from its March high and ~5% in the past week. The likely path to a positive reaction: reassure on the volume inflection into H2/Q4, show fuel and commodities turning supportive, confirm the ES second-half recovery, and reaffirm (or better) the FY EPS/FCF guide on the strength of pricing and cost/AI self-help. Optically weak headline volume/margin is expected — the market's focus should be on the underlying (ex-project) trend and the tone on the second-half acceleration.
Note: RSG operates on a shifted fiscal calendar in this dataset; figures above are drawn from RSG's Q1 2026 release/call and FY2026 guidance (given Feb 2026), plus WM's Q2 2026 release as a sector read-through.