| SNDK |
Report |
Revenue (Fiscal Q4 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$8.6B vs. cons ~$8.35B |
MEDIUM |
| SNDK |
Report |
Non-GAAP EPS (Fiscal Q4 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$36.00 vs. cons ~$34.24 |
MEDIUM |
| SNDK |
Report |
Non-GAAP Gross Margin (Fiscal Q4 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~82% vs. cons ~80% |
MEDIUM |
| SNDK |
Guide |
Revenue guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$8.8B vs. cons ~$8.6B (Fiscal Q1 2027) |
MEDIUM |
| SNDK |
Guide |
Non-GAAP EPS guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$37.00 vs. cons ~$35.00 (Fiscal Q1 2027) |
MEDIUM |
| SNDK |
Guide |
NBM contracted FY27 bit-volume share |
BETTER |
guide/disclosed ~45% vs. prior disclosed/implied cons ~35% (Fiscal Year 2027) |
LOW |
| SNDK |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+12.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| SNDK |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+18.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Backdrop into the print is unusually favorable: memory (NAND/DRAM) is now flagged across the industry (Micron DRAM share gains, SK Hynix capex hike, cross-sector commentary that supply is growing ~20%/yr vs ~200% demand growth from AI) as the binding constraint on AI compute, implying spot pricing kept accelerating through SanDisk's fiscal Q4 exactly as it did last quarter when guidance was blown away. Following the identical pattern from the April 30 FQ3 print (stock rallied ~8% on day 1 and continued to ~+28% cumulative by day 5 as NBM disclosures and margin trajectory got digested), a beat-and-raise here should see estimate revisions move up for FQ1 FY27 (out-period math working in the stock's favor rather than against it, since guidance itself has consistently undershot what actually gets delivered). The scheduled Investor Day on August 13 (5-6 trading days out) also gives a second nearby catalyst that keeps dip-buyers engaged rather than fading the initial pop, unless NAND ASP commentary disappoints or NBM bit-share progress stalls — the key risks that could instead trigger a fade. |
LOW |