| SPG |
Report |
Real Estate FFO per share (Q2) |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.20 vs. cons ~$3.15 |
MEDIUM |
| SPG |
Report |
Domestic property NOI growth (Q2 YoY) |
BEAT |
pred ~+5.5% vs. cons ~+4.0% |
MEDIUM |
| SPG |
Report |
Ending occupancy |
IN-LINE |
pred ~96.2% vs. cons ~96.1% |
MEDIUM |
| SPG |
Guide |
FY2026 Real Estate FFO/sh guidance (raise) |
BETTER |
guide ~$13.20-$13.35 (mid ~$13.28) vs. cons ~$13.22 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| SPG |
Guide |
Q3 2026 dividend declaration |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.25-$2.30 vs. cons ~$2.25 (Q3 2026, +~7% YoY) |
MEDIUM |
| SPG |
Guide |
FY domestic NOI growth framing |
UNCHANGED |
guide 'at least 3%' vs. cons ~4-5% actual trend (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| SPG |
Guide |
FY interest expense/lower interest income headwind |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$0.25-$0.30 drag vs. cons ~$0.28 (FY2026) |
LOW |
| SPG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+0.8% |
— |
LOW |
| SPG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.8% (FADE) |
Base case is a modest beat-and-raise, but the stock is up ~21% YTD and only ~6% off late-July highs, so a small guidance nudge is largely priced. The out-period math works against follow-through: strong reported NOI (~5.5%) is flattered ~120bps by the Taubman/TRG consolidation that fades into Q4, so forward organic NOI/FFO estimates get only modestly revised (or held) even after the headline beat, while a persistent ~$0.25-$0.30 rate headwind and muted buybacks at $220+ cap upside. Expect an initial pop that partially fades over the week toward slightly negative residual as investors fade the decel-into-year-end narrative. |
LOW |