SPG Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-10

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SPG Report Real Estate FFO per diluted share (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$3.28 vs. cons $3.20 HIGH
SPG Report Domestic & Portfolio NOI growth YoY (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~6.0% vs. cons 5.2% MEDIUM
SPG Report Retailer sales per sq ft, TTM (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$835 vs. cons $825 MEDIUM
SPG Guide FY2026 Real Estate FFO guidance BETTER guide ~$13.20-$13.35 (mid $13.28) vs. cons $13.21 (FY2026) MEDIUM
SPG Guide Domestic same-store NOI growth floor guide UNCHANGED guide ~at least 3% (unchanged) vs. cons ~4.0% embedded run-rate (FY2026) MEDIUM
SPG Guide Interest expense/income headwind to FFO BETTER guide ~$0.25/share drag vs. cons $0.27-0.30/share (FY2026) MEDIUM
SPG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% MEDIUM
SPG Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (FADE) Simon's track record of consistent FFO beats and a likely second guidance raise should drive an initial positive/idiosyncratic pop, but the stock has already de-rated ~6% off its late-July high into the print amid 'fully valued' downgrades (DB, Wolfe) even as estimates were raised — signaling the beat is largely pre-positioned. The Taubman NOI comp lapping through Q2/Q3 caps the size of any upward FY revision, and soft international/tourist traffic (Woodbury Common) plus tariff/Fed-policy overhangs give bears fodder to fade an initial pop within the week, consistent with sell-the-news behavior on a stock trading near record highs with split analyst sentiment. LOW