SRE Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SRE Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.08 vs. cons $1.01 (Q2'26; PY $0.89) MEDIUM
SRE Report Sempra Texas (Oncor) segment earnings BEAT pred ~$300M vs. cons ~$260M (PY $208M; rate-case catch-up surcharge back to Jan 1) MEDIUM
SRE Report Q2 2026 Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$3.16B vs. cons $3.14B LOW
SRE Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide reaffirm $4.80–$5.30 (mid ~$5.05) vs. cons $5.06 (FY2026) MEDIUM
SRE Guide FY2027 Adjusted EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide reaffirm $5.10–$5.70 (mid ~$5.40) vs. cons $5.42 (FY2027) MEDIUM
SRE Guide Long-term EPS growth rate UNCHANGED guide reaffirm 7–9% vs. cons ~7–9% (thru 2029) HIGH
SRE Guide SI Partners (KKR 45%) sale close timing LOWER guide ~Q3 2026 close vs. cons ~Q2–Q3 2026 (timing drift confirmed w/ CFO transition) MEDIUM
SRE Guide Texas incremental CapEx bucket update UNKNOWN guide potential +$9–10B add vs. cons ~$0 quantified (2026–2030 out-period) LOW
SRE Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% LOW
SRE Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) Likely EPS/Texas beat is driven by the one-time Oncor rate-case catch-up surcharge (Jan 1 back-recognition) while FY2026/2027 guides are only reaffirmed — implicit out-period math means H2 is a touch lighter, so no upward revisions follow the beat. Initial relief bounce on a beaten-up, low-positioning name fades as the SI close slips to Q3, the CFO transition adds overhang, and any incremental Texas CapEx update stays qualitative. LOW