SRE Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
SRE Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1.08 vs. cons $1.02 MEDIUM
SRE Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$3.12B vs. cons $3.10B MEDIUM
SRE Report Sempra Texas (Oncor) equity earnings contribution BEAT pred ~$310M vs. cons $285M MEDIUM
SRE Guide FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance range UNCHANGED guide ~$5.05 (midpoint of $4.80-$5.30, reaffirmed) vs. cons $5.03 (FY2026) HIGH
SRE Guide FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance range UNCHANGED guide ~$5.40 (midpoint of $5.10-$5.70, reaffirmed) vs. cons $5.38 (FY2027) MEDIUM
SRE Guide Long-term EPS growth rate (2026-2030) UNCHANGED guide ~8% (7-9% range reaffirmed) vs. cons ~8% (2026-2030) HIGH
SRE Guide Incremental Texas/Oncor large-load data-center capex opportunity BETTER guide ~$12B incremental vs. prior flagged ~$10B (2026-2030 plan) MEDIUM
SRE Guide ECA LNG Phase 1 substantial completion timeline LOWER guide ~Q4 2026 vs. prior 'this summer 2026' target (FY2026) HIGH
SRE Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
SRE Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.6% (FADE) SRE has sold off ~11% into the print (more than XLU's ~4% and roughly in line with sector-wide CA-wildfire/rate-driven utility weakness), so a clean beat-and-affirm with quantified Texas data-center capex upside and reassurance on ECA LNG/SI Partners timing should spark an initial relief bounce as idiosyncratic risk unwinds. However, the Q2 EPS beat is flattered by a one-time ~$70M Oncor PUCT catch-up (Jan-Jun) that isn't run-rate, and guidance (2026/2027 EPS, 7-9% LTG) is merely reaffirmed rather than raised, so sell-side won't materially lift out-year numbers. Lingering overhangs — unresolved ECA LNG remediation cost/timeline, SI Partners/KKR close still pending (Q3), and Newsom's wildfire-fund payout fight reintroducing CA regulatory risk for SDG&E — cap follow-through, causing the initial pop to fade over the week as the quality-of-beat gets discounted. MEDIUM