Report date: Thursday, August 6, 2026, before market open (release ~8:00 a.m. ET; call at 12:00 p.m. ET)
SRE shares have been under pressure heading into the quarter, sliding from roughly $95 in early July to $84.68 at the August 5 close — a decline of more than 10% in about a month, and a multi-month low. The stock's pullback has come even as management has reiterated guidance, suggesting investors are digesting company-specific execution issues (see LNG section below) alongside a broader repricing of long-duration utility/growth stories.
Wall Street consensus for Q2 2026 sits around $1.00–$1.05 adjusted EPS (roughly +12-14% y/y) on revenue near $3.1 billion. Sempra has beaten consensus in each of the last several quarters, so the bar for a "beat" is relatively high; the more important swing factors will be guidance commentary and project/regulatory updates rather than the headline EPS number itself.
Oncor will release its own Q2 results earlier the same morning, ahead of Sempra's call — worth a quick look for read-through on the Texas transmission story before Sempra's own numbers drop.
Sempra's first quarter was a clean beat-and-affirm setup. The company reported first quarter 2026 GAAP earnings of $1.37 billion or $1.58 per share... On an adjusted basis, first quarter earnings were $991 million or $1.51 per share, up from $942 million/$1.44 a year earlier. Management affirmed its full year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30 and 2027 EPS guidance range of $5.10 to $5.70, along with the projected long-term EPS growth rate of 7% to 9%. Notably, Sempra flagged that the positive financial impact for the first quarter of Oncor's base rate review will be primarily recognized in the second quarter given the PUCT order wasn't issued until April — meaning Q2 should get a discrete step-up from Texas rate relief (separately reported at roughly a $70 million boost from the PUCT order).
Capital deployment remains the core growth engine: Sempra is executing a record five-year 2026-2030 capital plan of approximately $65 billion, with 95% allocated to utility investments in Texas and California, having deployed $3 billion of investment capital in the first quarter, which keeps us on track to meet our annual target.
The PUCT's approval of Oncor's rate settlement is the single biggest earnings driver this quarter. The order delivered a higher authorized equity layer at 43.5%, higher return on equity at 9.75% and higher cost of debt set at 4.94%, and Oncor can surcharge the difference between the new billing rates and Oncor's current rates for the period January 1 to June 1, 2026. On top of that, Oncor's new Unified Tracker Mechanism (UTM) — designed to shrink regulatory lag — covers $4.4 billion of T&D assets that were placed into service since January 1, 2025, with testimony filed in July with a potential hearing on August 20 and a final order expected in H2 2026.
Beyond the base plan, investors should watch for an update on the roughly $10 billion incremental capex bucket tied to Texas data-center/large-load growth. On the Q1 call, CEO Jeff Martin said "there's some more things we can do between now and our Q2 call in August, and we look forward to coming back to the Street and update you" — so a firmer number here (or lack thereof) is a key swing factor for the stock. Recall Oncor's regional transmission plan already reflects 122 gigawatts of load 75 megawatts or higher of substantiated large-load demand, up from ~38 GW roughly a year ago, though the ERCOT "Batch Zero" process and RTP timeline remain fluid.
SDG&E's FERC TO6 settlement would raise its authorized base return on equity to 10.28% with a hypothetical capital structure of 54% equity, retroactive to June 2025, with FERC approval expected in H2 2026 — a decision investors will be watching for. Separately, SDG&E and SoCalGas filed their 2028 General Rate Case applications with the CPUC in mid-June, seeking new base revenue requirements for 2028-2031.
Wildfire policy remains the wildcard. Management struck a constructive tone in Q1, with Martin noting "reasonable confidence that we'll get something done in this legislative session" on SB 254 wildfire-fund reform, following a CEA resiliency study that outlines several potential pathways to improve affordability in the state and improve community safety. However, an August 5 report indicates Governor Newsom is now pushing to limit payouts from the utility-funded wildfire claims pool (following an $18 billion fund replenishment) — a reminder that California wildfire-liability policy is still evolving and could resurface on the call.
The strategic pivot to a "pure-play" U.S. utility model remains the central narrative. On the Q1 call, Sempra said it expected to close the transaction in the second or third quarter of 2026 for the SI Partners/KKR stake sale, having gotten FERC approval, competition approval from Korea... reached the end of the HSR period... received antitrust approvals in Mexico, and... received the majority of our third-party consents. A subsequent July 9 announcement (naming Bob Patel as incoming CEO of Sempra Infrastructure) pointed to a Q3 2026 close, so confirmation of timing — and progress on paying down parent debt and improving credit metrics afterward — is a key item for tomorrow's call. CFO Karen Sedgwick previously flagged that ratings-agency threshold improvements would likely come "closer to the end of the year" post-close, not immediately.
The bigger overhang is ECA LNG Phase 1. After loading its first export cargo in early July, the facility was shut down for planned inspections and damage was discovered in its refrigerant compressors; the project now expects substantial completion in Q4 2026 (pushed back from the "this summer" target given on the Q1 call) pending a root-cause investigation and remediation. Management has stated it does not expect this to reduce planned 2026/2027 earnings contributions, but investors will want confirmation and detail on this call, given it is likely a contributor to the stock's recent slide. Port Arthur LNG Phases 1 and 2 construction, by contrast, were described in Q1 as progress[ing] on time and on budget, with Phase 2 largely subscribed (ConocoPhillips, EQT, JERA, Sempra Infrastructure Partners) and additional offtake discussions ongoing.
Moody's shifted Sempra's outlook to negative previously, and management has been explicit that closing the SI Partners sale, deconsolidating its debt, and paying down parent-level debt are the primary levers to restore rating-agency headroom — Martin framed it as roughly "closing plus 6 months" before thresholds meaningfully improve. Any incremental commentary on financing plans, equity needs, or credit metrics will matter given the size of the five-year capital plan.
Sempra's board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.6575/share in May (a ~$2.63 annualized rate), putting the forward yield around 3% at current prices — a modest but steady component of the total-return thesis alongside the 7-9% targeted EPS growth.
Investors should expect the headline print to be roughly in line with (or modestly ahead of) consensus, buoyed by the Texas rate-case catch-up. The more market-moving items will likely be: (1) any update/quantification on the incremental Texas data-center capex opportunity; (2) firmer color and timing on the SI Partners/KKR close and subsequent deleveraging/credit-rating trajectory; (3) additional detail and financial impact of the ECA LNG compressor issue and revised completion timeline; and (4) any fresh signal on California wildfire-fund legislation given Sacramento's renewed activity. Given the stock's recent weakness, the market appears to be pricing in some execution risk on the LNG and closing-timeline fronts — a clean update on those three fronts, alongside a reaffirmed 2026/2027 guidance range and 7-9% long-term growth rate, would likely be read as reassuring.