| TAP |
Report |
Underlying EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$1.44 vs. cons $1.51 |
MEDIUM |
| TAP |
Report |
Net Sales |
MISS |
pred ~$3.02B vs. cons $3.09B |
MEDIUM |
| TAP |
Report |
U.S. financial (STW) volume |
MISS |
pred ~-8.5% vs. cons ~-6.5% |
MEDIUM |
| TAP |
Guide |
FY2026 Underlying EPS growth (reaffirm?) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~down 11-15% vs. cons ~down 13% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TAP |
Guide |
FY2026 Underlying pretax income growth |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~down 15-18% vs. cons ~down 16% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TAP |
Guide |
FY2026 Net sales (CC) |
LOWER |
guide ~flat to -1% vs. cons ~-2% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| TAP |
Guide |
H2 U.S. shipment/share recovery bridge |
UNKNOWN |
guide H2 STW > STR reaccel vs. cons ~-2% H2 volume (2H2026) |
LOW |
| TAP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.0% |
— |
LOW |
| TAP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.0% (FADE) |
Q2 weakness is pre-telegraphed so a low-bar print limits the initial reaction, but the FY guide is heavily back-half-loaded (H2 STWs must outpace STRs, share must inflect, comp/marketing reload). Analysts distrust that bridge given TAP's 2025 mid-year cut precedent and a still-soft consumer, so out-period math (implicit H2 skepticism) pulls estimates lower and any relief bounce fades into continued negative drift. |
LOW |