{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Underlying EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.44 vs. cons $1.51",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Sales",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.02B vs. cons $3.09B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "U.S. financial (STW) volume",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~-8.5% vs. cons ~-6.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Underlying EPS growth (reaffirm?)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~down 11-15% vs. cons ~down 13% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Underlying pretax income growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~down 15-18% vs. cons ~down 16% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Net sales (CC)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~flat to -1% vs. cons ~-2% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H2 U.S. shipment/share recovery bridge",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide H2 STW > STR reaccel vs. cons ~-2% H2 volume (2H2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 weakness is pre-telegraphed so a low-bar print limits the initial reaction, but the FY guide is heavily back-half-loaded (H2 STWs must outpace STRs, share must inflect, comp/marketing reload). Analysts distrust that bridge given TAP's 2025 mid-year cut precedent and a still-soft consumer, so out-period math (implicit H2 skepticism) pulls estimates lower and any relief bounce fades into continued negative drift.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}