| TAP |
Report |
Underlying EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$1.46 vs. cons $1.51 |
MEDIUM |
| TAP |
Report |
Net Sales (Revenue) |
MISS |
pred ~$3.03B vs. cons $3.09B |
MEDIUM |
| TAP |
Report |
U.S. STW Shipments YoY |
IN-LINE |
pred ~-8% vs. cons/guide midpoint -7.5% |
MEDIUM |
| TAP |
Guide |
FY2026 Net Sales growth (constant currency) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~flat (0%, +/-1%) vs. cons ~flat 0% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TAP |
Guide |
FY2026 Underlying EPS growth |
LOWER |
guide ~-14% vs. cons ~-12% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TAP |
Guide |
FY2026 Aluminum/tariff cost headwind |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$125M vs. cons $125M (FY2026) |
LOW |
| TAP |
Guide |
Year-end net debt/EBITDA leverage target |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~<2.5x vs. cons ~2.4x (FY2026 year-end) |
LOW |
| TAP |
Guide |
H2 U.S. share trend vs Q1 (-60bps) |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~improvement (qualitative, no numeric target) vs. cons ~-30bps implied (H2 2026) |
LOW |
| TAP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.2% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| TAP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.6% (FADE) |
Even if the print lands roughly within the pre-guided ugly range, the gap between a modest ~-3% revenue decline and a much steeper EPS decline (peak aluminum/MPT costs plus MG&A step-up) keeps margin skepticism alive; full-year guidance implies a sharp H2 shipment catch-up and share stabilization that analysts will need to underwrite without much new evidence, so sell-side models likely trim H2/FY26-27 EPS further even after modest in-line commentary, producing continued downward revisions and price fade over the following days rather than stabilization. |
MEDIUM |