{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Underlying EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.46 vs. cons $1.51",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Sales (Revenue)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.03B vs. cons $3.09B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "U.S. STW Shipments YoY",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~-8% vs. cons/guide midpoint -7.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Net Sales growth (constant currency)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~flat (0%, +/-1%) vs. cons ~flat 0% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Underlying EPS growth",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-14% vs. cons ~-12% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Aluminum/tariff cost headwind",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$125M vs. cons $125M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Year-end net debt/EBITDA leverage target",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~<2.5x vs. cons ~2.4x (FY2026 year-end)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H2 U.S. share trend vs Q1 (-60bps)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~improvement (qualitative, no numeric target) vs. cons ~-30bps implied (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.6,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Even if the print lands roughly within the pre-guided ugly range, the gap between a modest ~-3% revenue decline and a much steeper EPS decline (peak aluminum/MPT costs plus MG&A step-up) keeps margin skepticism alive; full-year guidance implies a sharp H2 shipment catch-up and share stabilization that analysts will need to underwrite without much new evidence, so sell-side models likely trim H2/FY26-27 EPS further even after modest in-line commentary, producing continued downward revisions and price fade over the following days rather than stabilization.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}