TDG Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TDG Report Adjusted EPS (FQ3'26) BEAT pred ~$10.50 vs. cons $10.20 MEDIUM
TDG Report Net sales (FQ3'26) BEAT pred ~$2.68B vs. cons $2.62B MEDIUM
TDG Report EBITDA As Defined (FQ3'26) BEAT pred ~$1.40B vs. cons $1.37B MEDIUM
TDG Guide FY26 Adjusted EPS guide (raise) BETTER guide ~$39.90 vs. cons $39.60 (FY26) MEDIUM
TDG Guide FY26 Net sales guide (raise) BETTER guide ~$10.45B vs. cons $10.40B (FY26) LOW
TDG Guide FY26 EBITDA As Defined guide BETTER guide ~$5.47B vs. cons $5.42B (FY26) LOW
TDG Guide Commercial aftermarket organic growth (swing factor / 2027 tone) UNKNOWN guide ~low-double-digit ~10% vs. cons ~8-9% (FY26); Middle East/fuel overhang keeps durability the key debate LOW
TDG Guide Capital deployment / special dividend & M&A (Stellant, Prince & Izant into guide) UNKNOWN >$10B firepower vs. ~$905M YTD buyback at ~$1,207 avg; special-dividend optionality vs. cons no special div LOW
TDG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
TDG Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) Likely beat-and-raise, but TDG typically raises FY guide by roughly the amount of the beat, so implied H2/Q4 estimates are effectively left unchanged (an implicit out-period trim). With a full ~19x EV/EBITDA valuation, an ~8% pre-print rally off the late-July low, a tough 54.4% year-ago Q3 margin comp, and lingering Middle East/fuel-driven aftermarket-durability and 2027 questions, an initial pop tends to bleed off as revisions math and 'sell-the-news' dynamics reassert. LOW