{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (FQ3'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$10.50 vs. cons $10.20",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales (FQ3'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.68B vs. cons $2.62B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "EBITDA As Defined (FQ3'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.40B vs. cons $1.37B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adjusted EPS guide (raise)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$39.90 vs. cons $39.60 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Net sales guide (raise)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$10.45B vs. cons $10.40B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 EBITDA As Defined guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.47B vs. cons $5.42B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Commercial aftermarket organic growth (swing factor / 2027 tone)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~low-double-digit ~10% vs. cons ~8-9% (FY26); Middle East/fuel overhang keeps durability the key debate",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital deployment / special dividend & M&A (Stellant, Prince & Izant into guide)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": ">$10B firepower vs. ~$905M YTD buyback at ~$1,207 avg; special-dividend optionality vs. cons no special div",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Likely beat-and-raise, but TDG typically raises FY guide by roughly the amount of the beat, so implied H2/Q4 estimates are effectively left unchanged (an implicit out-period trim). With a full ~19x EV/EBITDA valuation, an ~8% pre-print rally off the late-July low, a tough 54.4% year-ago Q3 margin comp, and lingering Middle East/fuel-driven aftermarket-durability and 2027 questions, an initial pop tends to bleed off as revisions math and 'sell-the-news' dynamics reassert.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}