| TDG |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$10.35 vs. cons ~$10.15 |
HIGH |
| TDG |
Report |
Net Sales (Revenue) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.72B vs. cons ~$2.68B |
HIGH |
| TDG |
Report |
EBITDA As Defined Margin |
BEAT |
pred ~52.7% vs. cons ~52.4% |
MEDIUM |
| TDG |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$39.80-$41.20 (mid ~$40.50) vs. cons ~$39.80 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TDG |
Guide |
FY2026 Net Sales Guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$10,400-$10,550M (mid ~$10,475M) vs. cons ~$10,380M (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TDG |
Guide |
FY2026 EBITDA As Defined Guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$5,420-$5,520M (mid ~$5,470M) vs. cons ~$5,420M (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TDG |
Guide |
Commercial Aftermarket Growth Commentary (Middle East drag) |
UNCHANGED |
guide/commentary ~high-single to low-double-digit growth maintained vs. cons fear of deceleration to mid-single-digit (Q4/FY2026 exit rate) |
LOW |
| TDG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| TDG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (FADE) |
TDG's track record of beat-and-raise plus resilient aftermarket demand should drive an initial positive pop, but the stock has already rallied ~7-8% off its mid-July lows into the print (Stellant withdrawal removed an overhang, Prince & Izant deal well-received), so much of the good news is pre-positioned. If the FY26 raise is proportionally smaller than the Q3 beat (a common TDG pattern - beat magnitude > guidance raise magnitude), the implied Q4 organic growth/margin bridge decelerates, prompting analysts to trim out-quarter and early-FY27 aftermarket normalization estimates even as headline numbers beat, causing gains to fade over the week. Elevated valuation (~39x trailing) leaves little multiple support if any commentary on Middle East-related CAM lag or FY27 aftermarket deceleration surfaces on the call. |
MEDIUM |